Bitcoin Is 10 Months Past Its Peak. What Could End the Crypto Winter

 Prices and market data as of August 17, 2026, unless otherwise noted. Crypto prices are intraday marks, not settlements. 

A Mild Winter, for Now

Bitcoin traded at $64,354 on August 17, 49% below the record $126,251 set in October 2025. Ether at $1,894.98 is 61.8% under its August 2025 high.¹ The total crypto market cap was $2.1 trillion at the end of the second quarter, down $304.8 billion from the first. That’s a third straight quarterly decline.²

CoinGecko puts the cycle low at $60,861 on June 7 and calls this drawdown “the mildest on record so far.” In the 3 prior cycles bitcoin bottomed 81.6% down in January 2015, 83.6% down in December 2018, and 76.7% down in November 2022.³

Bitcoin is more than 10 months past its peak. Cantor Fitzgerald puts the average peak-to-trough interval across those cycles at 384 days, which lands the comparable low in late October.⁴

Most investors seem willing to ride it out.

US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $35.2 billion in 2024 and another $21.3 billion in 2025. Farside’s daily estimates roughly $4.8 billion in estimated outflows through August 14 of this year. For context, cumulative net inflows since launch still stand at roughly $52 billion.⁵

The selling stems from mining and treasury companies, under pressure from lower prices and debt obligations.

MARA Holdings, the Nasdaq-listed miner that operated as Marathon Digital until 2024, sold 15,133 BTC in March for $1.1 billion to repay convertible notes. Cango, a Chinese auto financing platform that became one of the largest listed miners after entering the business in November 2024, sold 4,451 BTC in February for $305 million to pay down a bitcoin-collateralized loan.⁶

Poolin, once the largest bitcoin mining pool in the world, filed for bankruptcy in July. SBI Crypto, the mining arm of Japanese financial group SBI Holdings, shut a pool holding 2% of network hashrate on July 31.⁷

Michael Saylor’s Strategy holds 843,775 BTC at an average cost of $75,476 and has been a net seller since late June. It sold 3,588 BTC in early July for $216 million to fund preferred dividends, then skipped purchases for 5 weeks while raising $544 million in equity.⁸ Its stock traded at a 24.4% discount to the value of that bitcoin on August 17.⁹

The silver lining is the view that the forced selling due to the balance sheet pressures may eventually exhaust itself. For that however, the market will need to see signs that winter’s end is near.

A Thaw in the forecast?

There are a number of developments we’re tracking that may signal green shoots ahead of a crypto spring and at the front of the line is the CLARITY Act Vote.

CLARITY Act Vote

Finalizing the legislation would remove the legal and regulatory uncertainty hanging over the industry.

Senate Banking advanced the bill 15-9 on May 14, and the floor needs 60 votes against 53 Republican seats. Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on August 8, teeing up a procedural vote for the week the Senate returns in September.¹⁰

Federal Reserve Rate cuts

Lower interest rates lead to looser business conditions which may provide some balance sheet relief for the miners and treasury companies. Additionally, it may entice some money sitting in cash to redeploy in risk assets. However, market participants shouldn’t hold their breath for a cut. At the July meeting the Fed held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote. All 3 dissenters wanted a 25 basis point increase. Three are three meetings remaining in 2026.¹¹ We’ll be watching those closely.

New Ways to Make Money

Watch for staking payouts and crypto inclusion in 401(k) menus to bring in new money.

Bitwise’s Solana fund pays a net staking rate of 5.84% as of August 9, and Solana ETFs have drawn $1.13 billion since launching.¹² Fidelity filed on August 11 to stake up to 100% of its $898 million ether fund and pay the rewards out quarterly in cash.¹³ In our view a fund that pays something incentivizes and investor to hold even through a drawdown.

Long-term investors may soon have another way to access crypto prices. The Labor Department proposed a rule on March 30 that gives 401(k) fiduciaries a six-factor due diligence process that could make it easier to include alternative assets. That process covers performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and complexity, and presumes prudence if they follow it. The rule is asset-neutral and it should largely remove the litigation risk that has kept crypto off plan menus. Roughly 721,000 plans and more than 90 million participants fall under it. Comments closed June 1, and the department is aiming to finalize by year-end.¹⁴

Ground Hog Day in September?

In our view investors should be wary of the ground hog. So far, the winter has been relatively mild, and yet the probability of Springtime green shoots appearing anytime soon is low. Without a Fed cut and absent the passage of the CLARITY act, there is no clear catalyst for a near-term thawing.

The Senate missing the September cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, would in our view, might be akin to the Ground Hog seeing it’s shadow.

Failure to pass the CLARITY act would continue to weigh on prices and cause the forced selling to continue. In that case we’d expect the market to be looking at a deeper, prolonged winter. There is room to the downside. Recall prior cycles bottomed 76.7% to 83.6% down, and bitcoin is only off 49% from its high.

A deeper selloff will be a test for ETF investors who so far have been largely unwilling to part ways with their holdings. Do they have what it takes to survive the winter?

Time will tell.