The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a critical document published monthly by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). It encapsulates a wealth of information pertinent to agricultural commodities, presenting projections of supply and demand for major crops and livestock, including grains such as wheat, corn, and rice, oilseeds like soybeans, as well as livestock and dairy products. The WASDE report is a cornerstone for agricultural economists and is vital for traders and investors navigating the complex world of agricultural markets.
What’s more, the USDA compiles data from around the world, offering a global perspective on agricultural supply and demand dynamics.
The USDA provides commentary to help explain any month-over-month adjustments. Additionally, they provide the raw data which is presented cleanly in balance sheet format for readers to analyze for themselves.
Source: USDA WASDE Report December 2024
Let us take for example the domestic U.S. corn balance sheet presented above, walk through data explaining how each category fits into the supply/demand picture. Note, the data used in this example is from the December 2024 WASDE Report.
The first two rows show Area Planted and Area Harvested, which indicate the total acreage farmers intended to plant and the acreage harvested, respectively. For corn, 90.7 million acres were planted, with 82.7 million acres harvested. These figures form the foundation for estimating production potential. The next row, Yield per Harvested Acre, reveals production efficiency, with corn yielding 183.1 bushels per acre. Multiplying yield by harvested acres gives Production, which totals 15,143 million bushels—corn's largest component of supply.
Supply figures also include Beginning Stocks, the amount of crop carried over from the previous year, which stands at 1,760 million bushels, and Imports, which add a modest twenty-five million bushels. Together, these numbers contribute to Total Supply, which amounts to 16,928 million bushels for corn this year.
On the demand side, the table breaks down how corn is used. Feed and Residual accounts for 5,825 million bushels, while Food, Seed & Industrial usage—such as ethanol production—totals 6,900 million bushels. Exports, a key driver of global demand, are projected at 2,225 million bushels. Adding these categories gives Total Use, which comes to 14,950 million bushels.
The balance between supply and use determines Ending Stocks, the amount of corn left over at the end of the marketing year, which is projected at 1,738 million bushels. This figure provides a measure of carryover supply into the next year.
Finally, the Average Farm Price reflects the economic value of the crop, with corn estimated at $4.10 per bushel—a price influenced by the ample supply and stable demand shown in the table. (Note this price is the projected average price at which U.S. farmers will sell their corn over the marketing year and is not forecast of futures market prices.)
By comparing Total Supply to Total Use, we can assess market tightness. For example, the large ending stocks for corn this year suggest a comfortable supply, which is reflected in the relatively low average farm price.
The Ending Stocks-to-Use Ratio (Ending Stocks divided by Total Use) provides additional insight; a high ratio, indicates less pressure on prices whereas a low stocks-to-use Ratio would suggest a tighter balance and would provide upward price pressure.
Source: USDA WASDE Report December 2024
The WASDE report includes global balance sheets, offering insights into the international supply and demand dynamics of crops. Let’s use the example above and once more walk through the categories this time however explaining how they relate to the overall global supply and demand conditions.
It starts with Beginning Stocks, which represent the amount of corn carried over from the prior marketing year. For the 2024/25 projections, global beginning stocks are estimated at 314.22 million metric tons. This figure is added to Production, which totals 1,219.40 million metric tons globally. Together, these provide the foundation for global corn Total Supply, which includes imports.
Imports, listed at 183.41 million metric tons worldwide, are a key contributor to supply in regions with insufficient domestic production. In this table, we can also see imports broken out by country, such as China with 14.00 million metric tons. This granularity helps identify major trade flows. Imports are not added to total supply but are included for trade analysis purposes.
Moving to demand, Domestic Feed captures the quantity of corn used to feed livestock, a key component of demand, which globally stands at 776.50 million metric tons. Similarly, Domestic Total Use includes both feed and other uses, such as food and industrial demand, totaling 1,229.48 million metric tons globally. (Domestic in this case represents the entire world as one domestic market).
Exports highlight international trade, where countries like Brazil and the U.S. are key exporters. Brazil, for example, is projected to export 48.00 million metric tons, while the U.S. is expected to export 47.90 million metric tons. The final category, Ending Stocks, indicates the amount of corn projected to be carried over into the next marketing year. Globally, ending stocks are forecast at 304.14 million metric tons, providing a measure of the cushion available to meet future demand.
The table also provides a breakdown by regions and countries, highlighting differences in supply and demand dynamics. For instance, China’s large production (292.00 million metric tons) and significant ending stocks (204.27 million metric tons) reflect its focus on self-sufficiency, while regions like Southeast Asia depend heavily on imports to meet demand.
By comparing Total Supply with Total Use and analyzing key components like exports and ending stocks, we can assess global market tightness. For example, relatively high ending stocks this year suggest adequate supplies, which may limit upward price pressure. Similarly, tracking shifts in trade flows and regional demand helps identify changes in the global corn market. This balance sheet provides a vital tool for understanding how production, consumption, and trade interact on a global scale, shaping price trends and market dynamics.
For investors, the WASDE report is an invaluable tool for decerning the fundamental price drivers. By understanding the nuanced interplay of supply, demand, and price movements, analysts can identify opportunities for diversification and risk management in their portfolios.
In an increasingly interconnected and dynamic economic landscape, the WASDE report goes beyond mere numbers and forecasts, offering a framework for understanding agricultural market trends. By providing essential insights, it empowers traders, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions and engage in strategic planning at every level of the industry.
Teucrium Investment Advisers utilize Artificial Intelligence (AI) for certain document creation and editing services. The use of AI is supplementary in nature to assist with the development of market commentary, marketing, and advertising, and is not used for advisory services. No proprietary data or information was input into Daizy for the creation of this document. All calculations provided were performed by the Daizy LLM Analytics Service. All data outputs and calculations provided by Daizy are evaluated by the investment professionals of Teucrium. More information regarding the use of AI is available upon request.