Deriving Signals through the Novies
If you’ve spent any time trading ETFs, you already know that price action leaves clues. Whether it’s a moving average crossover, an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI), or a volume spike at a key level, you may be able to anticipate the market's next move if you know how to read the chart. When it comes to agricultural markets, those signals may be even more reliable.
Unlike sectors driven by earnings reports or headline news, agriculture prices are deeply tied to supply and demand realities: harvest yields, planting progress, weather disruptions, and export shifts. Teucrium’s suite of futures-based agricultural ETFs, including CANE, CORN, WEAT, and SOYB, provides direct access to these markets without the complexity of trading futures yourself.
That’s where technical analysis comes in. While no indicator is perfect, technical tools may help you time entries and exits more confidently, whether you’re swing trading a typical seasonal move or trying to catch a breakout on a news-driven spike.
This article discusses ways to potentially build a tactical edge by applying some technical trading tools to agricultural ETFs.
Agricultural commodities tend to trend. That’s because price movements are often driven by large, sustained forces—planting seasons, harvest cycles, weather disruptions, and geopolitical events that impact global supply.
For example, corn futures have historically rallied during planting delays in the U.S. Midwest and sold off after better-than-expected harvest reports. Historically, soybean markets have shown strength during South America’s growing season, when weather risks in Brazil and Argentina may tighten global supply.
Because Teucrium ETFs track futures markets, they may respond quickly to these supply-demand signals. They are good candidates for technical analysis techniques that may help you:
Let’s look at three popular technical indicators you can apply to agricultural ETFs today.
Agricultural markets don’t just move, they cycle. Seasonal patterns are well-documented in commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans. For instance, corn prices have historically shown strength from April through June, during the U.S. planting season. Soybean markets often see volatility around South America’s harvest window in February and March.
You can find free seasonal charts on sites like SeasonalTrader.com or Barchart.com’s seasonality section. These charts show historical tendencies, potentially helping you time trades with seasonally favorable trends.
For example:
Seasonality isn’t a guarantee, but it may help improve your odds when combined with technical setups.
One of the most exciting trades in any market is the breakout, when price finally clears a key resistance level with conviction.
But not all breakouts hold. Here’s what to watch for:
Let’s use WEAT in early 2022 as an example. As news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit markets, WEAT broke out of a multi-month consolidation range on massive volume. Traders watching the chart could have spotted the breakout as it unfolded, rather than chasing the move after it was overextended.
Before placing your next agricultural ETF trade, consider walking through this quick checklist:
Use tools like TradingView or Finviz to chart these indicators, and visit our fund pages for up-to-date product information, including holdings and educational resources.
You don’t need to be a professional to spot actionable setups. You just need a repeatable process. With Teucrium ETFs, you can express your views on the agriculture markets, whether it’s a short-term trade on planting delays or a longer-term position on global supply constraints. The key is to combine what you see on the chart with what you know about the market.
To learn more about Teucrium, schedule a call with us here.
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Footnotes for blog:
1Investopedia. “Moving Average (MA).” Last modified June 6, 2025.
2Investopedia. “Moving Average Crossover.” Last modified June 6, 2025.
3Investopedia. “Relative Strength Index (RSI): Definition and Calculation.” Last modified November 19, 2024.
4Investopedia. “Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Meaning, Formula.” Last modified September 16, 2024.
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