How the Golden Grain Cycle May Help RIAs Navigate Opportunities in a Foundational Asset Class
Agricultural markets move to their own tempo—driven not by earnings reports or interest rate expectations but by sunlight, rainfall, and crop yields. This natural rhythm, combined with global demand pressures and geopolitical friction, gives rise to a distinct set of market forces often underrepresented in traditional asset allocations.
For RIAs seeking uncorrelated exposure or inflation-sensitive strategies, agricultural commodities may offer timely portfolio benefits. Historically, they’ve moved independently of equities and fixed income and may serve as a potential hedge in volatile or rising-rate environments.1
But beyond these benefits, agriculture is a story of predictable cycles and structural demand growth. At the center of that story is Teucrium’s Golden Grain Cycle—a repeatable pattern that may offer insight into where we are in the market and where prices may be headed next.
Teucrium’s Golden Grain Cycle distills decades of grain market behavior into a clear, three-stage cycle rooted in economic fundamentals. The cycle is not just seasonal—it reflects the broader relationship between supply, demand, and price behavior over time.
As Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium’s President, notes:
Stage 1: Prices trade at or near the cost of production
This is often the longest phase. In years of surplus production—when supply exceeds demand—prices gravitate toward the national average cost of production (historically around $3.50 for front-month corn futures). Farmers’ margins are compressed, and incentives to plant additional acreage decline.
Stage 2: Prices advance amid supply/demand imbalance
Lower plantings or unexpected disruptions (weather, geopolitical events) historically have led to tighter supplies. Inventories are drawn down as demand exceeds production, and prices have risen—sometimes dramatically. In fact, front-month corn futures have historically doubled or more from Stage 1 levels during previous cycles.2
Stage 3: Supplies build, and prices head back toward production costs
Higher prices incentivize farmers to plant more. As a result, production rises, supply catches up with demand, and prices trend back toward cost-of-production levels. The cycle resets.
This cycle is not theoretical—it’s observable, historically persistent, and informed by natural and economic forces. Importantly for RIAs, it provides a framework for understanding potential entry points and market context.
At a fundamental level, grain markets are shaped by the tension between consistent global demand and uneven production cycles. There is only one harvest per year in North America. When that harvest underdelivers, the impact is felt worldwide.
These macro and micro forces set the stage for the cycle. But for RIAs, the key takeaway is this: grain prices are rarely static. They tend to oscillate around production cost levels, offering periods of potential growth and tactical opportunity.
Agricultural commodities have historically offered low correlation to stocks and bonds, and they often respond differently to inflation and interest rate regimes.
These attributes may make agricultural commodities appealing as a potential portfolio diversifier—particularly in environments where traditional assets struggle.
The good news for RIAs is that exposure to agriculture no longer requires managing complex futures contracts or dealing with tax complications.
Teucrium’s ETFs are purpose-built to provide transparent exposure to individual grain markets (like corn, wheat, and soybeans) and diversified agricultural baskets.
RIAs may utilize these ETFs to take:
Because the Golden Grain Cycle may offer a clear lens into price cycles, RIAs may use it to inform client conversations, build confidence in allocation decisions, and align with macro themes.
The Golden Grain Cycle reveals a recurring pattern—one based not on speculation but on the enduring relationship between supply, demand, and human food consumption. For RIAs navigating today’s unsteady investment environment, agriculture presents a grounded, real-asset opportunity that may offer both return potential and diversification benefits.
Teucrium’s ETFs are designed with the goal to make this opportunity accessible—without the complexity of managing a futures account and with the structural transparency advisors require. By understanding the cycle—and recognizing where we are within it—RIAs may better position their clients to capture what this essential, yet underutilized, asset class could offer in the months and years ahead.
To learn more about Teucrium, schedule a call with us here.
Footnotes:
1Teucrium, “How Agricultural ETFs Fit into a Diversified Portfolio,” Teucrium Blog, last modified May 2, 2025, https://blog.teucrium.com/knowledge-center/how-agricultural-etfs-fit-into-diversified-portfolio.
2Teucrium, “The Golden Grain Cycle,” Teucrium Insights, accessed June 4, 2025, https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle
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