Corn
Corn futures struggled early in the week as broader ag markets moved lower, but demand and technical support helped stabilize prices into the latter half. Two export sale announcements reinforced that U.S. corn remains competitive globally, while a successful test of the 100-day moving average helped spark a modest recovery. Futures briefly pushed higher, reclaiming the 20- and 50-day moving averages along with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement before momentum faded.
After several weeks of flagging trade and a December USDA crop report that offered little new information, prices appear comfortable settling back into a familiar range. Attention remains on demand, though seasonal factors suggest activity will slow into early January. South American crops are now established, and early reports point to neutral-to-favorable conditions, which continues to weigh on upside potential. With many market participants stepping to the sidelines into year-end, choppy, range-bound trade is likely to persist.
Key Levels: Resistance is layered between $4.45–$4.60 in the March ’26 contract. Support firms near $4.35, with additional downside targets at $4.20.
Soybeans
Soybean futures continued their downward trajectory, extending losses as the market digests heavy global supply expectations. Despite an active demand profile, highlighted by multiple export sale announcements this week as China returned to the U.S. market, prices remain under pressure. Traders remain cautious as the U.S. export window narrows ahead of South American new-crop availability.
Many market participants believe both U.S. and global stock levels remain understated, particularly with South America off to a largely neutral-to-favorable start. Brazilian supplies are already priced below U.S. offers, raising questions about how long China will remain willing to pay a premium. With the Brazilian harvest for early-planted crops expected to begin within weeks, focus will stay on near-term demand strength.
Technically, the January ’26 contract has shed more than $1.20 in the past month and is testing key support levels. Oversold conditions, RSI below 30, alignment with the 200-day moving average, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level, suggest potential for a corrective bounce. However, any recovery is likely to be limited without a meaningful shift in demand or South American weather.
Key Levels: Initial support rests near $10.50, with bears targeting $10.35–$10.10. Resistance stands between $10.75–$11.00.
Wheat
Wheat futures continued to slide, breaking through recent lows to post a new contract low near $5.08 in the March ’26 contract. The market remains weighed down by ample global supplies and a lack of supportive headlines. Since peaking on China-related optimism more than a month ago, prices have steadily worked lower as supply projections continue to grow.
Adding pressure, China reportedly secured Argentine wheat for the first time in decades while canceling a U.S. purchase. At the same time, production estimates from the EU and Argentina continue to rise, and winter wheat conditions remain largely non-threatening. While prices now sit at levels viewed as value by some, upside remains capped moving into the first quarter of 2026.
That said, depressed prices are unlikely to incentivize acreage expansion in future seasons, which could provide support on breaks. For now, the market appears focused on stabilizing into year-end.
Key Levels: Support is expected near $5.00–$4.85. Initial resistance stands around $5.25, with heavier selling anticipated between $5.35–$5.50.
Sugar
Sugar futures followed the broader commodity theme, retreating early before finding support and moving sideways into the weekend. Prices corrected off contract lows set in early November but lacked the fundamental spark needed to extend gains. As year-end approaches, traders continue to reduce exposure and wait for clearer signals in 2026.
Global supply prospects remain the dominant factor. India’s 2025/26 production outlook points to a sharp year-over-year increase, while reduced ethanol diversion adds to export potential. Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, is also reporting favorable growing conditions. Together, these factors continue to cap upside attempts.
After rebounding earlier in the season, futures have resumed a softer tone and remain vulnerable absent a meaningful shift in fundamentals. Range-bound trade is expected into early 2026 as technical indicators consolidate.
Key Levels: Bears are targeting a retest of lows near $0.1425, extending toward $0.1375. Resistance is layered between $0.1550–$0.1600, with prices gravitating toward the converging 20- and 50-day moving averages as RSI holds near 50.