The most consequential USDA reports year-to-date land Tuesday. Here's what to watch.
Five days from now, USDA drops two reports simultaneously: Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks. Both land at noon on March 31. The grain market has been quietly coiling ahead of the release, and for good reason. The setup is unusually charged.
Strong Demand Chews Through Record Crop
The 2025 corn crop was all-time record at 17.021 billion bushels, produced on 98.788 million acres, the most since 1936.¹ The initial fear was that the record haul would lay the groundwork for a multi-year glut. That fear has largely dissolved.
USDA has since revised export projections upward to a record 3.3 billion bushels. As of mid-March, export inspections were running 42% ahead of last year’s pace.² Ethanol production hit approximately 1.126 million barrels per day in early March, the fourth-highest weekly output on record.³ Then the EPA opened E15 for the 2026 summer driving season on March 25, adding more intraday fuel to the rally.⁴
It looks as though last year’s record crop is being consumed faster than originally expected. If the March 1 stocks number supports that view, then the demand case becomes very hard to dismiss, though uncertainty remains ahead of the report.
Corn: The Acreage Range That Moves Markets
The Prospective Plantings report provides the market with the first farmer-surveyed estimate of 2026 intended acreage. USDA’s own Ag Outlook Forum set the baseline at 94.0 million planted acres, down 4.8 million from last year’s 89-year high. Private forecasters have generally come in around that number.
One important dissenting voice: Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group. His farmer surveys have historically run higher than USDA’s early projections, and his current numbers “do not jive with USDA’s first estimates.”⁸ If Gulke is right, and plantings come in at 95.5 million acres or above, new-crop corn futures prices may face a meaningful reset lower.
Here’s the math using Gulke’s projections: at 94 million acres with trendline yields of 183 bu/acre, and a harvested area discount of 8% (not all planted acres are harvested), would result in a production number of 15.83 billion bushels. Penciling a 3-year historical average usage figure of 15.52 billion bushels, it’s clear that there would be real potential for usage to exceed production. In that case, existing supply would be drawn down, and ending stocks would head lower.
The conflict in the Middle East and the risk it poses to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused speculators in the futures market to build a solid position on the long side. The relatively large net-long position in the futures market can create asymmetric downside risk should the reports disappoint.
The Fertilizer Wildcard
The Strait of Hormuz closure has driven urea prices up 28%.¹⁰ The disruption is concentrated in nitrogen, and it’s hitting at the worst possible moment: immediately before spring planting.
Farmdoc daily economists concluded that “major shifts in acreages are unlikely, as the majority of inputs have been priced and ordered,” but acknowledged some rotation from corn to soybeans at the margin.¹¹ Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners put a rough number on it: a 1-million-acre reduction in corn “wouldn’t take much,” given how little change it requires at the individual farm level.¹² Seed availability limits how far that rotation can go, but the direction is clear.
What to Watch Monday
Speculative traders held a net-long futures position of 228,804 contracts in corn as of March 17, which was a four-year high.¹³ The trade is crowded bullish. That doesn’t make the bull case wrong. It does mean the post-report volatility could be elevated in either direction.
Plantings at or below 94 million acres, paired with a stocks figure below 9 billion bushels or lower, would likely be viewed as bullish and supportive of current market positioning.
Plantings at 95.5 million acres or above would likely be taken as a bearish sign that could lead to some selling and added volatility.
Watch the acreage number first. You can’t grow what you don’t plant.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations, publicly available data, and third-party sources as of the date of publication. These statements involve significant risks and uncertainties — including weather, policy changes, geopolitical developments, and USDA report outcomes — that could cause actual results to differ materially. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future market outcomes and should not be relied upon as such.
Nothing in this communication constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity, futures contract, or other financial instrument. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Footnotes
1. “Record US Corn Crop Based on Yield, Acreage,” Successful Farming, 2025.
2. “USDA Bumps Up 2025-26 US Corn Exports to Record 3.3 BB,” AgWeb, February 2026.
3. “Ethanol Production Climbs to Multi-Week High,” DTN/Progressive Farmer, March 2026.
4. “Corn May ‘26 Futures Price,” Barchart.com, March 25, 2026.
5. “Allendale Survey Signals Corn Acres Down, Shift Toward Soybeans,” Allendale Inc., March 2026.
6. “Private Estimates on Prospective Plantings Show Shift Toward Soybeans,” AgMarket.Net, March 2026.
7. “AM Market Report: March 19, 2026,” The Western Producer, March 19, 2026.
8. “USDA Predicts Brighter Picture for Ag After 2026,” AgWeb, March 2026.
9. Chad Hart, “The Outlook Before Planting,” Ag Decision Maker, Iowa State University Extension, March 2026.
10. Shawn Arita et al., “Strait of Hormuz Closure and Fertilizer Supply Risks for U.S. Agriculture,” farmdoc daily, March 23, 2026.
11. Gary Schnitkey et al., “The Iran Conflict: Potential Impacts on 2026 Corn and Soybean Returns,” farmdoc daily, March 17, 2026.
12. “Fertilizer Price Spike Could Shift Crop Rotations in 2026,” Heartland Farm Partners, March 2026.
13. “COT on Forex and Commodities: Week to 17 March 2026,” Saxo Bank, March 2026.
14. “USDA 2026 Prospective Plantings Countdown: What Corn and Soybeans Markets Are Watching,” Grain Insights for Farmers, March 2026.
