Corn
Corn futures slid early in the week, triggering sell stops as prices broke below the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The quarterly stocks report offered little surprise, confirming expectations of adequate old crop supplies ahead of a record U.S. harvest.
Selling proved short-lived, with futures quickly rebounding to the 20-day moving average before consolidating into the weekend. Two additional sales—one to Mexico and one to an unknown destination—confirmed stronger demand and were reflected in Thursday’s robust export figure. Private estimates trimmed yield late in the week, though acreage projections remain aligned with USDA’s elevated outlook.
Harvest is advancing at an average pace under favorable weather. In South America, Brazil has planted roughly one-third of its first crop, while Argentina progresses with early-season sowing. Traders will be monitoring upcoming crop reports, though potential delays from a government shutdown may stall fresh data.
Key Levels: Support at $4.05–$3.90. Resistance begins near $4.25, with added pressure at $4.35–$4.40.
Soybeans
Soybean weakness carried over from last week, with November futures sliding below $10.00 before recovering for a strong close. The quarterly stocks report was largely neutral, though lingering uncertainty around U.S.–China trade weighed on sentiment as harvest accelerates.
Midweek rumors that Presidents Trump and Xi may meet before year-end, combined with U.S. officials hinting at potential farm aid, sparked short covering and lifted futures back toward converging moving averages. The 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages sit tightly clustered between $10.24½–$10.29¼, acting as a gravitational pull for prices.
Private estimates fractionally trimmed yield and production, though overall supplies remain more than sufficient. With China securing imports from Brazil and Argentina, U.S. export demand has lagged, leaving stocks to build. South American plantings are advancing steadily as U.S. harvest ramps up.
Key Levels: Support at $10.15–$10.08. Resistance at $10.35–$10.50.
Wheat
Wheat futures struggled early as USDA’s latest report confirmed larger-than-expected stocks. Ample U.S. supplies, accelerating winter seedings, and firm global competition—particularly from the Black Sea region—kept pressure on the market.
Demand remains uneven. Saudi Arabia’s tender for 420,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat confirmed activity, though Russia continues to dominate exports with competitive pricing. U.S. futures remain at risk of retesting sub-$5.00 levels in December contracts if demand fails to materialize.
Technically, futures face increasing resistance at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Without stronger supportive inputs, rallies remain capped.
Key Levels: Support at $4.90–$4.75. Resistance at $5.25 initially, with heavier selling interest at $5.35–$5.50.
Sugar
Sugar futures posted fresh contract lows last week, with October contracts falling to $0.1510 before rebounding sharply. Headlines from Brazil citing disease concerns that historically cut yields by as much as 50% triggered strong buying, further supported by reports of declining crush in key regions.
Despite these short-term gains, the broader outlook remains pressured. Forecasts still point to surplus supplies for the coming season, while expanded exports and softer demand—particularly with Pakistan slowing purchases—keep rallies contained.
After a sustained decline since mid-summer, traders are watching technical levels closely as prices consolidate.
Key Levels: Support at $0.1550–$0.1500. Resistance at $0.1650, with additional weight at the 100-day moving average.