Corn
Corn futures showed early-week strength, rallying back toward converging moving averages and settling between the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Trade turned cautious as participants positioned ahead of next week’s USDA report, where speculation centers on a potential yield reduction that could trim production and domestic stocks. Given late-season dryness, the disruption caused by a government shutdown, and the backdrop of record-high yields, a modest cut would not come as a surprise to the market.
Outside influences remain limited, though attention continues to focus on geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, where infrastructure attacks have disrupted Ukrainian grain movement. South American conditions remain largely neutral, with pockets of dryness in both Brazil and Argentina, though production estimates remain elevated. While a projected 2 BPA cut to U.S. yields—down to 184.0 BPA—would still mark a record, it could lend near-term support and stability to futures. At the same time, expectations for steady-to-higher world stocks and increased South American production continue to cap upside potential. With ample global supplies and the market awaiting clarity on Brazil’s Safrinha crop, trade is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.
Key Levels: Resistance begins near $4.50 in the March ’26 contract, with heavier selling expected between $4.60–$4.75. Initial support is seen around $4.40, with bears targeting a move back toward $4.30–$4.15 on renewed pressure.
Soybeans
Soybean futures opened the week with a gap higher on chatter of renewed Chinese interest and short-covering ahead of the January crop report, which is expected to show modest yield reductions. Demand surfaced through three daily sales announcements to China and unknown destinations, though weekly export sales underwhelmed as many traders returned from holiday. Average estimates point to a 0.3 BPA yield cut to 52.7 BPA, slightly reducing production, though weak seasonal demand is expected to lift ending stocks and global inventories overall.
Following the report, attention will turn to whether China remains active in U.S. markets, especially as South American premiums continue to decline and remain more competitive. Early-planted crops in Brazil and Argentina are approaching early harvest later this month, with fieldwork activity increasing and additional supplies poised to enter the pipeline. With no fresh tariff developments from the U.S. Supreme Court, futures edged only marginally higher into the weekend. Without a clear shift in South American weather or U.S. demand, traders remain cautious about pressing the market too aggressively in either direction.
Key Levels: Futures are consolidating around converging technicals near $10.50. Upside resistance targets $10.85–$11.10, while downside support rests at $10.25–$10.00.
Wheat
Wheat futures followed row crops higher through much of the week but failed to generate meaningful upside follow-through. Prices found support on expectations of reduced U.S. winter wheat acreage and slightly lower domestic stocks. However, these supportive factors were outweighed by an anticipated increase in global stocks, projected up 1.1 MMT to 276 MMT, reinforcing the theme of ample worldwide supply.
The broader narrative remains one of limited fresh news, with markets trading in a prolonged gray zone. Large global inventories and uneventful U.S. demand continue to cap rallies, allowing prices to work gradually lower. That said, depressed price levels are expected to discourage future acreage, offering longer-term stability on breaks toward key psychological levels. As futures probe the $5.00 area, traders are beginning to view declines as potential longer-term buying opportunities rather than momentum-driven weakness.
Key Levels: Support is defined between $5.00–$4.75. Initial resistance stands at $5.35–$5.50, with stronger resistance developing near $5.60–$5.75 on any sustained recovery.
Sugar
Sugar futures stabilized after an extended decline through 2025, finding support just above the $0.1400 level before rebounding to hover near the $0.1500 pivot. Technicals reflect a neutral posture, with RSI holding near 49.6 and the 20- and 50-day moving averages beginning to converge. Supportive headlines emerged following reports of lower yields from Brazil, sparking the recent bounce from contract lows.
Despite this recovery, traders remain hesitant to push prices aggressively higher as other producing regions continue to report neutral-to-favorable conditions and the potential for increased global export availability persists. With fundamentals offering mixed signals, early-year allocation decisions and headline-driven trade are likely to dictate near-term direction. For now, prices appear content to consolidate within a defined range.
Key Levels: Support is established at $0.1425–$0.1400. Resistance emerges at $0.1525–$0.1550.