Corn
Corn futures lacked clear direction early in the week but found footing as support near the 200-day moving average held firm. A minor correction gave way to a late-week rally, spurred by solid export sales on Thursday, pushing May’25 futures toward resistance near $4.70 and testing the 100-day moving average. Traders remain wary, however, as South American supply looms large. Brazil’s key safrinha crop planting is complete, and tariff uncertainties persist alongside expectations of softer U.S. demand and increased domestic acreage this season.
Spring weather now takes center stage, with recent moisture offering slight relief to parts of the U.S., though broader soaking rains are needed to bolster planting conditions. Southern seeding is set to accelerate in the coming weeks, while the Midwest’s critical window spans April to May.
Technically, corn prices are range-bound, balancing favorable fundamentals against inflationary pressures. Resistance aligns where the 100-day and 20-day moving averages converge, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with heavier resistance between $4.85 and $5.00. We expect support at $4.50–$4.35.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.85–$5.00. We expect support at $4.50–$4.35.
Soybeans
Choppy trade in soybean futures this week with prices for May delivery oscillating around the $10.00 mark. for May contracts. While $10.00 has held, upside momentum stalled against technical resistance between $10.15 and $10.30. Traders await clarity on U.S.-China trade talks, with tensions elevated and negotiations slated for Monday offering a glimmer of hope for improved relations. Until then, importers like China are leaning on South America, reflected in Brazil’s firm cash basis. U.S. export sales disappointed this week, a trend likely to persist amid trade uncertainty.
In South America, Brazil’s harvest is progressing steadily, while Argentina’s full-season bean harvest will ramp up in April. Private Brazilian crop estimates have tightened, with one pegging output at 170.9 MMT—down slightly but above USDA figures. Argentina’s outlook has dimmed, with the Buenos Aires Exchange trimming production to 48.6 MMT, below USDA estimates.
We see resistance at $10.25–$10.50, with support near $10.00 and further downside risk toward $9.85–$9.50.
Wheat
Wheat futures tested resistance early in the week between $5.65 and $5.75 but failed to sustain a breakout, retreating after a brief correction in the wheat/corn spread offered fleeting support. A limited ceasefire in Ukraine and U.S.-Russia talks provide cautious optimism, though progress remains slow. Elsewhere, renewed Israeli strikes in Gaza following Hamas’ failure to release hostages stoked global concerns. Cash markets worldwide are firm, hinting at tighter-than-expected supplies. Russia’s export slowdown has shifted demand elsewhere, boosting U.S. export sales, with notable new-crop bookings for 2025/26.
In the U.S., hot, dry Plains weather last week stressed winter crops, but a recent storm delivered snow and moisture, easing concerns. Prices remain range-bound, with resistance at $5.70–$5.85 and support at $5.40–$5.25.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.70–$5.85. We expect support at $5.40–$5.25.
Sugar
Sugar futures rallied this week, testing the key $0.2000 level. Though unable to close above $0.2000, repeated probes suggest robust underlying strength. Hot, dry conditions in Brazil have raised fears of a production shortfall this season, compounded by negative reports from India and Thailand, including reduced Indian exports. A weakening U.S. dollar, inflationary pressures, and the International Sugar Organization’s forecast of a growing global deficit further fueled the climb. Support has shifted upward to $0.1925–$0.1875, with late-week profit-taking doing little to dent bullish momentum.
Technically, the RSI for May’25 futures sits at 60, suggesting room for gains. A close above $0.2000 could propel prices toward $0.2050–$0.2100 resistance.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.2050–$0.2100. We expect support at $0.1925–$0.1875.