Grains & Sugar Weekly 03/28/2025

Corn

Corn futures broke lower this week, falling sharply from Monday’s high and carving out a new recent low on Friday at $4.42—a drop of 24 ¼ cents. Selling pressure stemmed from continued fund liquidation and growing bearish sentiment ahead of Monday’s USDA reports. Traders are positioning for a potentially negative stocks and plantings update, with early estimates pointing to nearly 4 million more acres planted year-over-year. Stocks, meanwhile, are expected to decline only marginally.

Uncertainty also looms around global trade. While Brazil’s safrinha crop was planted quickly and Argentine supplies are active, progress in Black Sea negotiations has further weighed on sentiment. A key date looms on April 2nd, as investors await U.S. tariff decisions.

Technically, corn futures broke down below recent support, though the sharp drop from February’s high of $5.18 ¾ warrants some caution against leaning too aggressively to the downside. Early-season dryness in parts of Brazil and U.S. drought conditions could still impact sentiment. Demand remains moderate, and futures hover just above RSI oversold levels.

Key Levels: We see support at $4.40–$4.25. Resistance comes in near $4.60–$4.75.

 

Soybeans

Soybean futures quietly clawed back to the $10.00 mark this week, dipping briefly below before rebounding more than 20 cents on renewed buying interest. As with corn, pre-report positioning drove trade, though beans moved in the opposite direction. Traders expect soybean acres to fall by more than 3 million from last year, while stocks are projected slightly higher—a mixed bag for fundamentals.

South American harvests are progressing rapidly, despite regional weather issues. Private crop estimates for both Brazil and Argentina continue to come in below USDA forecasts, especially for late-planted areas affected by dryness. Brazil’s cash basis remains firm, underscoring strong global demand. In the U.S., demand has slowed, and trade with China remains uncertain as key negotiations remain unresolved.

Prices remain range-bound for now. The nearby contract holds support at $10.00, with bears targeting $9.75–$9.50. Resistance builds toward $10.50.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.50. We expect support at $10.00, with downside risk to $9.75–$9.50.

 

Wheat

Wheat futures fell hard this week, shedding 45 ½ cents from early-week highs. The selloff accelerated after prices slipped below the previous contract low of $5.30, hitting a new recent low at $5.17 ½—just shy of the psychological $5.00 target for bears.

News of improved grain flows from Russia, along with weather forecasts calling for neutral-to-favorable growing conditions in both Russia and the U.S. pressured prices. That said, Russian crop outlooks remain mixed, with some estimates improving while others highlight the risk for lower yields.

U.S. export demand remains sluggish, with two consecutive weeks of weak sales. Still, global cash markets are firm, and futures sit near technically oversold levels. A near-term correction is plausible, especially with multiple production regions facing longer-term challenges.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.50, with heavier resistance at $5.70–$5.85. Support expected down to $5.00.

 

Sugar

Sugar futures retreated this week, giving back a significant portion of recent gains as production concerns eased. Prices attempted to stabilize between $0.1950 and $0.1920 but late-week selling dragged futures toward $0.1900 support and key moving averages, including the 20-, 100-, and 200-day.

Reports out of Brazil pointed to better-than-expected production, though longer-term concerns remain as steady rains are still needed to ensure favorable yields. India continues to hold firm on export quotas amid weaker domestic consumption, while Thailand faces its own crop issues. Global demand has softened, and with futures recently testing strong resistance at $0.2000, the pullback unfolded quickly.

Momentum remains a key driver in the sugar market, with traders awaiting fresh input before establishing a new direction.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.1975–$0.2000. We expect support at $0.1875–$0.1850.