Corn
Corn futures wobbled early in the week but found support as export demand continued to build. Two fresh sale announcements and strong Thursday morning export data reinforced a broader bullish narrative tied to tightening U.S. and global supplies. Market participants are also positioning for potential forward purchases during the uncertain “grey area” of tariff enforcement.
South American crop conditions remain mostly stable, though ongoing tariff-related buying interest from alternative global importers continues to support regional cash markets. Domestically, heavy rains across the central and eastern Corn Belt have slowed early planting progress. Monday’s report pegged corn planting at 4% complete—2% behind the five-year average.
With expectations for planted acreage above 95 million, corn prices are facing a headwind at the prospect of a record U.S. crop. However, any sustained planting delays or trade hiccups could lend support to futures. Technically, prices are inching closer to the psychological $5.00 barrier, with $4.80 acting as a near-term pivot. Initial support lies around $4.70, with additional footing between $4.65–$4.50 as the market awaits clearer signals on U.S. planting progress and global trade flows.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.00 and support at $4.70, with deeper support at $4.65–$4.50.
Soybeans
Soybean futures traded sideways this week following a surprisingly strong start to April. The recent USDA acreage report largely aligned with expectations, but traders were still caught off guard by the market’s resilience—especially given tepid U.S. demand, rising U.S.–China tensions, and ongoing South American harvest activity.
In Brazil, harvest is nearly complete, helping drive Chinese buying and firming cash basis levels. Argentina remains behind schedule, with just 28% harvested compared to a 47% five-year average, delayed by excess moisture. While short-term concerns exist, additional fieldwork could accelerate if conditions improve—especially with recent currency adjustments that favor exports.
Attention will soon shift to U.S. planting progress. If persistent rains delay fieldwork into May, the narrative could shift toward increased soybean acreage at corn’s expense. While that story is still developing, the technical outlook shows resistance at $10.35–$10.50, with heavier selling expected between $10.75–$11.00. Nearby support stands at $10.25, with $10.00 acting as a psychological floor if momentum fades.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.35–$10.50 (stronger at $10.75–$11.00) and support at $10.25 and $10.00.
Wheat
Wheat futures extended their post-stocks-report rally, climbing gradually as shorts retreated following contract lows. Prices have gained ground despite a bearish USDA report, with traders increasingly focused on tightening global supplies and mounting production issues.
Russia continues to struggle with dryness, and forecasts call for more of the same over the next 10 days. In the U.S., excessive rains and flooding in key growing areas have reduced production estimates and sharply lowered good-to-excellent ratings.
While tariff concerns are keeping market participants cautious, wheat has benefited from its relative safety appeal amid volatile equity markets. For now, prices remain range-bound. Key support lies between $5.25–$5.00, with resistance building around $5.50–$5.65. Bulls are eyeing a breakout toward $5.75–$6.00 if further production concerns develop.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.50–$5.65 (with a bullish target of $5.75–$6.00) and support at $5.25–$5.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures broke hard early in the week, extending the bearish momentum that began nearly two weeks ago. Futures have dropped 212 points from the April 2nd high, to a new low of $0.1751. That steep decline triggered caution among traders, sparking only a modest bounce as shorts likely booked profits ahead of the long holiday weekend.
The downtrend was fueled by headlines pointing to improving production outlooks in Brazil and other key regions, combined with weaker demand projections tied to tariffs. While sentiment has turned negative, the season remains far from over. With trade negotiations still in play and the potential for new production hiccups, futures could find renewed support on dips.
Technically, buyers may emerge between $0.1750–$0.1700. On the upside, resistance is expected near $0.1850, with heavier selling likely between $0.1875–$0.1900.
Key Levels: We see support at $0.1750–$0.1700 and resistance at $0.1850–$0.1900.