The grain complex got clobbered this week. July corn fell to a contract low, Chicago wheat logged its longest losing streak in a decade, and soybeans gave back most of the move that had carried them over $12 a bushel. One theme tied it together. The war and weather risk premium that had built into grains since the US-Iran conflict came back out of the market all at once, ahead of the June 11 WASDE.
The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex fell roughly 5% on the week, back to pre-Iran war levels last seen before February. Urea prices tumbled, stripping out a bullish input-cost story that had supported the complex for months. Rain moved into a dry Midwest, and fund managers kept liquidating long positions every session.
Corn
July corn fell from 444 cents on June 2 to 418 cents by Friday, a drop of about 26 cents (roughly 5.9%) and the biggest weekly decline since February 2025. Intraday lows touched $4.17 on Friday, the lowest since January 16. Widespread rain across the corn belt pulled the drought premium out of the market, with 82% of Iowa's crop rated good to excellent.
Demand did not show up to cushion the break. No fresh Chinese buying materialized despite a US-China summit pledge of $17 billion in farm purchases. A 136,000-ton corn sale to South Korea got shrugged off.
There is a lot of corn, and the market knows it. A Bloomberg survey pegs 2026-27 US ending stocks at 1.947 billion bushels, hovering right around the psychological 2 billion level. In our view, an upside surprise in stocks or yield at the June 11 WASDE could extend the selloff.
Wheat
July soft red winter wheat fell to $5.81 3/4 by Thursday, down about 3% on the week. Hard red winter wheat dropped as much as 2.3% on Monday alone, its ninth straight session of losses and the longest streak since 2015. Stale longs were the dominant seller all week as managed money kept covering.
The tape sold off while the supply story turned the other way. ABARES cut Australia's 2026/27 wheat crop forecast 26% year-on-year to 26.7 million tons on dry weather and higher input costs. Russia's spring wheat planting is running at its slowest pace since 2018, 12% behind last year as of late May. And US spring wheat conditions came in at 47% good to excellent, well below the 60% the trade expected, a genuine surprise.
Rabobank flagged a tighter global balance and expects firmer prices ahead. We think that gap between a bearish tape and a bullish balance sheet is the thing to watch.
Soybeans
July soybeans fell from about $11.93 on June 1 to $11.28 3/4 by Thursday, a drop of roughly 65 cents (about 5.4%) to multi-month lows. New Section 301 tariffs announced Thursday raised fears of Chinese retaliation on US bean purchases, the market's most acute demand worry. Falling crude dragged soybean oil and the broader complex lower.
The technical damage was real. July beans took out the four-week low and traded through the February 27 close of 1157 1/4, the day before the Iran bombing started. China is the swing factor, and no confirmed purchases have landed against the summit pledge.
The balance sheet is not screaming tight. A Bloomberg survey sees 2026-27 ending stocks at 311 million bushels, essentially unchanged from USDA's May figure, and Pro Farmer's crop condition index for beans is tracking just below last year at 368.1 versus 369.7. The crop got planted into good weather, and the early read is fine.
Sugar
ICE No. 11 raw sugar fell for at least three straight sessions through Thursday, touching 14.14 cents intraday and failing to hold a key level at 14.65 cents, a weekly decline of roughly 2 to 3%. Two forces are pressing down. A large Brazilian cane harvest is coming, and falling crude reduces the incentive for Brazilian mills to divert cane into ethanol, which points to more sugar output.
The balance sheet backs the bearish read. A NovaCana survey of 12 companies averages a 2.97-million-ton global surplus for 2025/26, and the International Sugar Organization recently raised its own surplus estimate to 2.24 million tons on a 182-million-ton production forecast. A proposed 25% US Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods includes sugar and ethanol, though mills are expected to see limited direct impact since the US is not a primary destination. FAO reported sugar prices up 7.5% month-on-month in May, a gain the week's price action has since reversed.