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Corn
Corn futures bounced sharply this week after setting fresh contract lows in the December ’25 contract. A convergence of supportive inputs, ranging from stronger-than-expected trade activity and firm cash markets to hot/dry weather across the U.S. and a slower-than-normal South American harvest, provided the spark for a short-covering rally. Some bottom-picking added fuel to the bounce, which proved more significant than many anticipated.
Despite the recovery, traders remain cautious. U.S. crop conditions have remained mostly neutral to favorable, and expectations for this season’s production run high. Brazilian crop estimates also continue to trend well above USDA figures, and global trade tensions persist. These factors will likely limit the upside, particularly if no meaningful shifts occur in weather or geopolitical dynamics.
Technically, the market rallied through initial resistance near $4.30 and the 20-day moving average, reaching a weekly high just shy of the 50-day MA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Heavier resistance sits above at $4.45–$4.60, where the 100-day, 200-day, and 50% Fib levels converge. On the downside, support has proven durable at $4.30–$4.15, but eyes remain on the psychologically important $4.00 level.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.45–$4.60; support at $4.30–$4.15, with focus on $4.00 if bearish fundamentals persist.
Soybeans
Soybean futures staged a strong reversal this week after testing key support at the 23.6% Fibonacci level and approaching the critical $10.00 mark. Holding that support, the market quickly rallied back toward resistance above $10.50, helped by headlines hinting at a possible U.S.–China trade announcement tied to President Trump’s upcoming visit to Iowa.
Momentum was further boosted by a flurry of export sales and improved weekly numbers, which triggered technical buying. Futures surged through a confluence of moving averages, the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day—signaling growing bullish momentum. With many short positions in the market, the rally forced stop-outs and added to the upside push.
However, concerns remain. While hot/dry conditions may start to weigh on crop ratings, the season to date has been generally favorable, keeping production outlooks elevated. The market may struggle to climb much further without fresh bullish inputs.
Key Levels: Resistance at $10.75–$11.00, with profit-taking likely near $10.80. Support at $10.25–$10.00.
Wheat
Wheat futures followed the row crops higher this week, bouncing back after a steep selloff into month- and quarter-end erased the gains from mid-June’s rally. Despite increased winter wheat harvest activity, futures managed to regain technical footing and hold above key support levels.
A mixed bag of fundamentals helped limit further downside. Delays in harvest due to wet conditions, a marginal drop in G/E ratings, and ongoing unrest in the Black Sea region, combined with questionable production outlooks from other global exporters, provided a mild tailwind. However, overall attention remains on corn and soybeans during the heart of the U.S. growing season, keeping wheat somewhat range-bound.
Technically, futures are now poised to test heavier resistance near the 100-day moving average and the $6.00 mark. The downside remains vulnerable, with support seen at $5.40 and stronger buying interest around $5.25–$5.00.
Key Levels: Resistance at $6.00; support at $5.40, with stronger footing expected near $5.25–$5.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures found a pulse this week amid positive trade chatter, particularly regarding potential deals with China. While the broader tone has remained bearish for some time due to improving global supply outlooks, the market finally saw a round of profit-taking and speculative buying after carving out new contract lows.
Despite projections of a global surplus not seen in years, some traders are reassessing downside risk as bearish fundamentals appear fully priced in. Meanwhile, forward buyers are emerging to secure coverage at historically low prices, and any signs of poor crop development could provide a future spark.
Technically, the market faces resistance at the 20-day moving average near $0.1650, with additional overhead pressure building between $0.1700–$0.1725. Support is expected to resurface near recent lows, with scale-in buying likely between $0.1575–$0.1550.
Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1700–$0.1725; support at $0.1575–$0.1550.
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