Wheat
Chicago wheat led the complex into the weekend. September futures settled at $6.40 1/4 Friday, up 19 1/2 cents (3.1%), the biggest single-day gain among the four markets we track.
The spark came from the Black Sea region. Ukrainian drones hit 35 of the roughly 120 Russian ships operating in the Sea of Azov, and by Friday morning both the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait were closed to commodity traffic through the weekend. StoneX's Arlan Suderman laid out the stakes: 30-35% of Russia's wheat exports move through that corridor, Russia is expected to account for more than 22% of global wheat exports this year, and the global cash price of wheat is generally set in the Black Sea.
Friday's WASDE was the quieter story, with new-crop ending stocks at 722 million bushels, down 22 million from June but slightly above the trade guess; Marex's Tim Bulfer rated the numbers neutral. Europe kept deteriorating in the background, with French milling wheat ratings sliding to 65% good/excellent and Expana cutting its EU milling wheat forecast to 128.3 million metric tons.
Watch the Kerch Strait. A quiet reopening could bleed the premium back out as fast as it built, while any Russian retaliation against commercial grain vessels leaving Ukraine might push prices higher still.
Harvest pressure is the counterweight; winter wheat was 59% cut as of Sunday, and Russian offers near $228 per ton kept US wheat uncompetitive all week.
Corn
September corn settled at $4.39 1/2 Friday, up 7 cents (1.6%). The week opened with what Marex's desk called the first official weather scare of the crop year; December corn ran to a five-week high at $4.64 1/4 Tuesday before cooler forecasts clawed most of it back.
Friday's WASDE gave the bulls their spark. USDA cut old-crop ending stocks 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion, 59 million below the average trade estimate, and dropped new-crop carryout 170 million to 1.79 billion on stronger exports.
The old-crop tightening ran through feed and residual, raised 150 million bushels to 6.35 billion, a category Suderman had called “statistically in dreamland” even before the increase.
The market took the print as friendly; corn was up 6 to 7 cents within the hour. The weather story that started the week was real too: CropProphet data pegged June 29 through July 4 as the warmest overnight stretch for US corn areas in 46 years of records, per Standard Grain's Joe Vaclavik, who spent the week tracking forecasts of “non-stop” Corn Belt heat before the GFS model cooled off Thursday.
Sunday night's weather models may matter more than anything USDA printed. Marex's desk flagged a blocking ridge building over the western Belt next week, right as pollination ramps into its July 10-31 window, and called the weekend model runs the real decision point. Watch for the ridge to hold or slide east; either outcome could set corn's tone for the back half of July.
Soybeans
September soybeans settled at $11.81 1/4 Friday, up 9 3/4 cents (0.8%). November beans spent the week knocking on $12, touching a six-week high Wednesday before profit-taking trimmed the move.
China did the buying. COFCO booked cargoes Monday and Tuesday, USDA confirmed a 472,000 metric ton sale Wednesday (the biggest daily soybean sale to China since November), another 136,000 tons Thursday, and 9.7 million bushels more Friday morning.
Suderman's read: China “is finally stepping up to the plate.” The catalyst traces to Beijing's statement that both sides agreed in principle to fold agriculture into a tariff-reduction framework. The scale is still small: new-crop commitments sit near 2% of China's 25 million metric ton annual pledge, and US beans carry a 13% tariff into China against 3% for Brazil, per Pro Farmer.
Friday's WASDE added 40 million bushels of production on higher acres but raised new-crop exports 30 million, holding ending stocks at 310 million bushels, 22 million under the trade guess.
Watch the flash-sale tape. Talk inside China points to 15 million tons of purchases by December 31, and steady confirmations could keep a bid under this market even if the weather cooperates.
Sugar
October sugar settled at 14.88 cents per pound Friday, down 0.24 (1.6%), the only market of the four to finish lower. No. 11 has had trouble sustaining rallies with Brazil's crush running big.
Brazil is the anchor. UNICA data show Center-South crushing fell about 13% in the second half of May on rain-soaked fields, but the season-to-date crush still runs roughly 16% ahead of last year, with cane yields at 84.7 metric tons per hectare, well above early projections.
Hedgepoint pegs the full-season crush near 635 million tons with room to move higher. The forward ledger looks tighter: Czarnikow flipped its 2026/27 global balance to a 600,000-ton deficit after cutting EU production to 13.9 million tons on heat-wave damage, and NOAA raised the odds of a very strong El Niño to 81% for October-December, with a 97% chance it stays active into early 2027.
Watch Brazilian rainfall through August. Rain slows the crush now but builds cane for the August-November window, so a drier stretch could let mills catch up and keep nearby prices heavy.
If El Niño delivers the drought NOAA's probabilities imply for India and Thailand, deferred contracts may hold their supportive bias even while the front of the curve struggles.