Corn
Corn futures bounced sharply after early-week losses dragged the December '25 contract to new lows at $4.07½. The recovery came as bottom-picking by end users, short covering, and weather-driven supply concerns sparked renewed interest. Hot and dry conditions across key U.S. production areas during critical growth phases raised some yield uncertainty, even if marginal. Combined with a record demand pace, despite minimal Chinese participation, the market found reason to rally.
Still, production optimism remains high. Crop conditions across much of the U.S. have been neutral to favorable, reinforcing expectations for a strong harvest. A late-week headline from Washington added intrigue, as President Trump announced Coca-Cola's switch from corn syrup to cane sugar, prompting speculation about broader grain demand shifts from large food companies.
Technically, futures hit the 20-day moving average and approached initial resistance near $4.30 to $4.35, where a confluence of resistance exists with the 50-day moving average and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level. A gap left from last week’s selloff could draw prices lower, with support expected between $4.00 and $3.85, where buying interest should increase.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.30 to $4.35, support at $4.00 to $3.85, with attention on the unfilled gap and psychological $4.00 level.
Soybeans
Soybean futures surged early in the week, launching a strong rally that cleared all major moving averages clustered between $10.26 and $10.34¾ in the November '25 contract. Momentum was driven by a mix of favorable technicals, trade chatter, and robust export sales. A partially filled gap from last week’s selloff added fuel, though a one-cent void remains.
Fundamental support came from hot and dry weather concerns, which may dent yields slightly if sustained. That said, the broader outlook remains favorable, with much of the U.S. crop benefiting from strong early-season conditions. Trade negotiations continue to draw interest, with China remaining in sharp focus.
Technically, futures now test resistance near $10.50 and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement. Heavier resistance sits at $10.60 to $10.65, where previous selling has emerged. Support is seen at $10.00, though bears may look for a push toward $9.75 if momentum fades.
Key Levels: Resistance at $10.60 to $10.65, support at $10.00, with additional pressure building below at $9.75.
Wheat
Wheat futures opened the week under pressure, reacting to a four-point jump in spring wheat condition ratings and a 10 percent advancement in winter wheat harvest progress. Favorable moisture in dry areas, an improved French outlook, and a modest uptick in global production forecasts from the IGC contributed to a bearish backdrop. Spread unwinding between long wheat and short row crops added to the early weakness.
However, prices found footing late in the week, helped by short covering and speculative interest as futures neared contract lows. Bullish cues came from rising Russian export premiums, fueled by extreme heat forecasts, alongside solid U.S. export sales and Algerian demand.
Technically, futures rebounded to test the 20- and 50-day moving averages near $5.48 to $5.50, with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement just above at $5.55. Support is expected on pullbacks toward $5.25, with stronger footing between $5.25 and $5.00.
Key Levels: Resistance at $5.55, support at $5.25 to $5.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures broke lower into month and quarter-end, pressured by improved production outlooks and sluggish demand. Following a flagging pattern through early July, prices surged on headlines out of Washington. President Trump’s announcement that Coca-Cola plans to switch from corn syrup to cane sugar triggered speculative buying and profit-taking.
Technically, after bouncing from the contract low of $0.1544 , futures found support at the 23.6% Fibonacci level and rallied with enough momentum to test the 50-day moving average at $0.1693. Conditions in Brazil have cut into supply expectations, tempering surplus pressure and supporting recent gains. U.S. consumption speculation and potential production hiccups could help firm the floor on future pullbacks.
Upside momentum now faces resistance at $0.1700, with bulls eyeing the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level at $0.1730. Support is likely to reappear on dips toward $0.1600, with stronger interest near the contract low at $0.1544.
Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1700 to $0.1730, support at $0.1600 to $0.1544.