Corn
Corn futures slipped lower this week, erasing the prior week’s gains as the December '25 contract drifted sideways in a choppy trade. Early strength faded quickly as the market failed to sustain momentum, with futures rejected at technical resistance near the 20-day moving average.
Bearish sentiment stemmed from continued optimism around U.S. crop development. Despite a slight decline in condition ratings, the overall outlook remains favorable. Traders are also digesting reports of Brazil’s massive harvest entering the global pipeline, which could reinforce downside pressure as new supplies come online.
Still, support lingers beneath the surface. U.S. exports remain firm, and some end-user demand emerged as prices retreated. Reports of southern rust and pollination issues in parts of the Midwest have also raised eyebrows. Speculative funds appear to be paring back their large net short position, helping steady the market.
Technically, the failure to hold above the 20-day moving average leaves the chart under bearish control. The contract now tests nearby support levels, with traders watching for signs of renewed selling as the August 1 tariff deadline looms.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.21 to $4.30, support at $4.16½ to $4.13¼, with downside potential toward $4.00.
Soybeans
Soybean futures moved sideways in listless trade, settling modestly lower as November '25 contracts failed to break through key resistance levels.
Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions kept demand concerns in focus, especially after another round of lackluster export sales and news of China turning to South America for soymeal. While U.S. crop conditions unexpectedly dipped, they remain supportive of good yield expectations.
There were bright spots. A late-week flash sale offered a spark, and reports of early SDS and white mold outbreaks in Iowa introduced a layer of uncertainty. Some crop consultants flagged hot July temperatures as a potential risk to yield, though it’s too early to draw firm conclusions.
Technically, futures remain rangebound. Prices are hovering near a dense cluster of moving averages, including the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day, while RSI near 50 reflects a lack of directional conviction.
Heading into August, attention will center on the upcoming tariff deadline and the weather’s influence during pod fill.
Key Levels: Resistance at $10.32 to $10.50, support at $10.22 to $10.10, with critical psychological support at $10.00.
Wheat
Wheat futures consolidated near recent lows this week as modest midweek strength was faded into the weekend.
Weakness came from declining Russian export premiums, along with continued harvest progress in the U.S. that added seasonal supply pressure. The winter wheat harvest advanced another 10%, further weighing on sentiment.
But the market wasn’t without support. Weekly U.S. export sales improved, with notable interest from Tunisia and Bangladesh. Spring wheat conditions dipped, and a crop tour in North Dakota projected a lower yield than last year. Russia also trimmed its 2025 harvest and export forecasts due to lingering weather challenges.
Technically, September Chicago wheat rallied into the 50-day moving average but couldn’t sustain gains, slipping back to support. Futures continue to grind near key contract lows.
Traders will stay tuned to headlines from the Black Sea region, monitor global demand, and track U.S. harvest progress for direction.
Key Levels: Resistance above $5.50, with heavier resistance between $5.75 and $6.00; support rests at the $5.20 contract low, with bears eyeing a move toward $5.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures slipped early before stabilizing midweek, bouncing from technical support as the market struggled to find direction.
Demand remains underwhelming, capping upside, while production outlooks have improved across key regions. Brazil and India both reported better growing conditions, though isolated trouble spots have led to minor downward revisions in output expectations.
A notable headline came from Washington, where President Trump’s announcement that Coca-Cola would switch to cane sugar stirred speculation about a potential demand shift in the U.S. sweetener market.
Technically, prices found support at the 20-day moving average. RSI near 50 confirms the neutral tone, with neither bulls nor bears clearly in control.
Without a clear catalyst, traders expect sugar to remain rangebound in the near term, watching for fresh supply or demand shocks.
Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1700 to $0.1730, with bulls eyeing $0.1750; support at $0.1600, with renewed interest likely near the $0.1544 contract low.