Corn
December corn settled at $4.83 1/4 Friday, up 11 1/4 cents on the day and 21 1/4 cents on the week. Most of that came Wednesday, when the contract jumped roughly 20 cents on the August WASDE.
The USDA cut the national corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre, under the 182.4 average trade guess. Planted acreage however was revised higher, up 1.4 million acres on farmer certification data. With increased acreage the total production projection rose to 16.013 billion bushels.
The market looked past the bigger crop and instead focused on the demand side: exports up 75 million bushels in both old and new crop years, and new-crop ending stocks down to 1.653 billion. StoneX’s Arlan Suderman called the new balance sheet “snug” and notes corn export inspections are running 25% ahead of last year’s pace. Funds had lightened up into the report, cutting their net long by 18,946 contracts to 125,875 as of Tuesday, modest next to this spring’s peak near 345,000. There may be room to add if the yield holds up.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour runs Monday through Thursday, with scouts pulling samples across 7 states and tour estimates due Friday afternoon. It’s the first objective field data of the season; USDA’s August number came from farmer surveys and satellites. Tour results near 180 could keep the demand story in charge, while a stronger showing may push December corn back into its old range.
Wheat
September Chicago wheat settled at $6.74 3/4 Friday, up 22 cents on the day and 35 cents on the week. Not to be outdone, the September Kansas City wheat contract added 33 3/4 cents Friday to close at $7.54 1/4.
The focus is on the Black Sea. Ukrainian drones hit Novorossiysk Wednesday, damaging two grain terminals and halting a third at Russia’s largest grain export hub. Sovecon cut Russia’s August wheat export forecast to 3 to 3.4 million tons, the smallest for the month in a decade, while Ukraine’s own August shipments are running roughly 75% below last year with its main ports effectively closed. USDA trimmed combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports by just 2.5 million tons in Wednesday’s report; Suderman thinks that “could end up being a fraction of the eventual result.” Traders appeared to have been caught offsides, adding 8,530 contracts to a Chicago net short that stood at 33,400 on Tuesday, right before prices jumped. It stands to reason that a good part of the rally through the end of the week was due to short covering.
Watch for truce headlines. A Thursday report that Ukraine offered to halt attacks on civilian Black Sea targets knocked wheat off its highs within minutes, and Russia had dismissed the idea by Friday. The war premium could leave as quickly as it arrived if there is a breakthrough in negotiations. That said, with US production pegged at a 56-year low and funds still short, dips may find buyers.
Sugar
October Sugar No. 11 settled at 16.60 cents per pound Friday, down 0.22 on the day but higher on the week and holding near its highest levels since last summer. The contract traded under 15 cents as recently as late July.
Managed money did something it hadn’t done in at least a year: flipped net long.
Funds swung from 87,188 contracts net short to 43,584 net long in the week ended Tuesday, August 11, a reversal of more than 130,000 contracts. Sao Martinho says persistent rain is diluting sucrose content in Center-South cane and should limit this harvest’s sugar production, USDA cut its US sugar production forecast for a second straight month to 8.95 million short tons, the lowest since 2019/20, and Brazil’s July sugar exports fell 16.6% from a year ago. Thailand’s KSL is bracing for a super El Nino, sees the country’s cane crop shrinking, and forecasts sugar near 17 cents in 2027.
Watch UNICA’s next Center-South report for confirmation the sucrose slide is real, and watch El Nino: the US Climate Prediction Center puts better than 90% odds on a very strong event this fall and winter, and 69% odds on a historic one. A position built this fast could unwind just as fast if Brazil’s numbers surprise the other way. Friday’s lower close is a reminder.
Soybeans
November soybeans settled at $11.92 1/2 Friday, up 10 1/4 cents on the day and 16 1/4 cents on the week. The quietest market of the four, and yet still grinding higher.
China bought US soybeans nearly every session this week: flash sales of 136,000 metric tons Tuesday, 244,000 tons Wednesday, 125,000 tons Thursday and 136,000 tons Friday, all new crop.
Standard Grain’s Joe Vaclavik pegs China at roughly 21% of its 25 million-ton purchase commitment. State-owned traders are doing nearly all of the buying, with private importers sidelined by tariffs that make US beans uneconomic, so hitting the full target may get harder as state storage and crush capacity fill.
The WASDE Report was neutral for beans. The yield projection was trimmed to 52.7 bushels per acre but acreage was revised higher. Total production is now projected at 4.519 billion bushels, which netted out against usage would result in a 320 million bushel carryout. Funds sold 23,415 contracts through Tuesday and remain net long 109,109.
Watch for private Chinese buyers to show up, or not, ahead of Xi’s expected Washington visit next month. Suderman expects the state buying “will likely go away when no longer politically expedient.” Next week’s tour pod counts and the last stretch of August grain-fill weather could decide whether this crop gets bigger or smaller from here.
