Corn
Corn futures lacked clear direction this week as the government shutdown continued to limit fresh data. Prices tested the 20- and 100-day moving averages early before retreating toward the 50-day. Midday Friday, reports that China may restrict exports of rare earth minerals triggered a selloff into the weekend. Escalating U.S.–China tensions, fueled by social media statements from President Trump suggesting higher tariffs, added to the pressure and dimmed hopes for renewed trade talks.
December 2025 futures closed weakly, with technical signals hinting at further downside risk. The market remains range-bound, drifting lower toward $4.00 as harvest progresses rapidly under favorable conditions. Absent supportive demand news—particularly with government data unavailable and logistics challenges ongoing—traders see little reason for a rally. Private yield reductions have done little to change the outlook, as production remains ample. Attention will soon shift to South America, where first-crop planting is moving swiftly.
Key Levels: Support at $4.10 and $4.00, with heavier buying interest near $3.90–$3.80. Resistance at $4.20, followed by stronger selling between $4.25–$4.40.
Soybeans
Soybean futures climbed early in the week before fading from key technical resistance. After briefly moving above major moving averages and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, futures fell roughly 20 cents as optimism over potential aid announcements faded. Headlines suggesting higher Chinese port fees, combined with renewed trade uncertainty, sparked late-week selling.
Talks of a possible meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump before year-end have lost momentum, leaving U.S. farmers facing a large harvest with limited export relief. Brazil continues to capture Chinese demand, reporting record bean sales, while U.S. farmers push more production into storage amid capacity constraints. With the government shutdown delaying policy announcements, market sentiment remains cautious. Futures are consolidating just below key technical levels awaiting a clearer catalyst.
Key Levels: Support at $10.00 and $9.75–$9.50. Resistance at $10.20–$10.30, with stronger resistance near $10.50 pending renewed trade optimism.
Wheat
Wheat futures extended their decline, closing poorly as technical momentum stayed weak. December 2025 contracts broke key support near $5.00 amid escalating U.S.–China tensions and another round of bearish global production estimates. Increased output from Russia and other major exporters continues to cap rallies, keeping U.S. wheat under pressure.
Despite global abundance, prices are approaching levels that could invite end-user buying and potential stability. U.S. demand remains muted, with limited new export business outside the Black Sea region. After falling more than $1.50 this year, lower prices could eventually curb planted acres in upcoming seasons.
Key Levels: Initial support at $5.00, with follow-through weakness toward $4.75–$4.50. Resistance at $5.25–$5.50.
Sugar
Sugar futures rebounded this week after setting new contract lows in late September. Buying accelerated as reports from Brazil pointed to disease issues and lower-than-expected yields, fueling a corrective rally through initial resistance. Futures nearly closed above the 50-day moving average before retreating slightly into the weekend.
Short covering and supply concerns lent temporary support, but forecasts still call for a global surplus near 4.1 MMT. This keeps a lid on sustained strength, as momentum traders continue to react sharply to headline-driven shifts. Technical indicators have stabilized, with RSI readings near neutral as the market consolidates.
Key Levels: Support at $0.1575–$0.1550. Resistance at $0.1625–$0.1650, with additional weight from surplus forecasts.