Corn
Corn futures held steady early in the week as key moving averages began to converge. The 20-, 50-, and 100-day averages clustered between $4.18½ and $4.20½, providing firm support before a midweek bounce. Buying interest strengthened Thursday following reports of progress in U.S.–India trade discussions and anticipation of next week’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Short covering lifted December 2025 contracts back above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4.25½ before momentum faded into the weekend.
Sentiment remained cautiously optimistic as traders weighed favorable headlines against ongoing uncertainty. Gains were underpinned by rising ethanol output and declining stocks, while isolated harvest disease reports in the western Midwest added mild support. Still, harvest progress across the U.S. remains rapid, with strong yields reinforcing expectations of ample supply. Early seeding in South America continues to advance, and production estimates for the 2025/26 season are trending higher year over year. With the IGC holding its global corn output forecast steady, inventories are projected to expand. Market tone has turned neutral after an extended bearish period, leaving futures oscillating in a narrow range amid a lack of decisive direction.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.25 with heavier selling expected from $4.35–$4.50. Support near $4.20, with additional downside potential toward $4.05–$3.90.
Soybeans
Soybean futures posted strong gains this week, rebounding from key technical support to challenge overhead resistance. Short covering accelerated as headlines pointed to ongoing U.S.–China negotiations and a potential presidential meeting next week in South Korea. Traders are hopeful for renewed progress after China satisfied most of its near-term demand through South American purchases, leaving U.S. exports sidelined. Washington’s financial support for farmers underscores the strain from lost market share, though a trade breakthrough could shift sentiment favorably.
However, South American planting continues at a brisk pace, with acreage and output expanding across Brazil and Argentina. Ample new-crop supply and competitive export offers keep a cap on U.S. upside potential. Talks with India about increased agricultural imports provide a glimmer of diversification, though India’s reluctance to import GMO crops presents hurdles. Domestically, strong cash bids from processors reflect tight farmer selling as grain heads into storage, lending support to nearby contracts. Futures approached the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement near $10.50 before meeting resistance, with traders awaiting clarity on trade policy.
Key Levels: Resistance at $10.50 with heavier selling near $10.60–$10.75. Support at $10.35–$10.20 amid converging moving averages.
Wheat
Wheat futures recovered midweek alongside strength in row crops, with December 2025 contracts testing resistance near the 50-day moving average. After hovering below the 20-day average, a corrective rally was unsurprising, though follow-through remained limited. Market sentiment stays cautious as traders await developments on the trade front amid ample global supplies and steady demand.
The rebound followed recent contract lows below $5.00, while reports from key exporters reinforced bearish fundamentals. Australia’s harvest continues with better-than-expected yields, and Russian output estimates were raised by IKAR to 88 MMT. The IGC lifted global wheat production to a record 827 MMT, up 8 MMT from prior estimates, expanding global stocks. While U.S. export sales remain modest, trade flows from the Black Sea dominate the market. New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector may alter import patterns over time, but for now, global supply remains abundant. Technical readings show a neutral setup, with RSI holding near 50.
Key Levels: Resistance at $5.15–$5.20, with potential for short covering up to $5.35–$5.50. Support at $5.00–$4.85.
Sugar
Sugar futures extended losses after posting a weekly high at $0.1582, falling to new contract lows for March 2026 at $0.1493. Prices stabilized into the weekend as short-term bearish positions were covered and profit-taking emerged below the $0.1500 level. Global supply conditions remain favorable following strong production seasons among major exporters, reinforcing expectations of a surplus.
A brief recovery in energy markets provided modest support after early-week weakness tied to declining crude oil prices. Rising energy prices encouraged greater ethanol blending, tempering sugar output temporarily. Brazil remains central to market direction, with higher production reported in key central regions and more cane diverted toward sugar than ethanol. With surplus levels not seen in years, exporters may act aggressively to capture market share. Absent fresh bullish catalysts, the market is likely to consolidate near current lows, though additional weakness could invite further technical selling.
Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1550–$0.1600. Support below $0.1500, with risk of a decline toward $0.1450 if weakness persists.
