Corn
Corn futures traded without clear direction this week as resistance at key technical levels continued to cap gains. December ’25 futures held steady after last week’s rally, but repeated tests of the 200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement met renewed selling pressure. The combination of a heavy fundamental backdrop and profit-taking limited follow-through momentum. Prices retreated into the weekend, showing stability near $4.25–$4.20, where several technical indicators are converging.
Market sentiment remains cautious as traders await the next catalyst. With U.S. harvest nearing completion and South American planting off to a neutral start, the outlook skews toward abundant supply. Updated estimates from the UK FOA project the global grain stocks-to-use ratio at 31.1%, the highest level in seven years, adding weight to nearby prices. Harvest in the U.S. and abroad is entering its final stages, contributing to ample world supplies. Traders are squaring positions ahead of next week’s WASDE report, scheduled for release on the 14th despite the government shutdown. Afterward, market focus will return to global trade developments and South American weather trends.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.35–$4.50. Support at $4.25–$4.20, with downside risk extending toward $4.10–$4.00.
Soybeans
Soybean futures remained the market’s focal point as recent U.S.–China trade progress brought long-awaited clarity. Tariff removals and renewed Chinese purchase commitments for both year-end and future delivery provided an initial boost to sentiment. The key question now is whether China will honor these agreements. Early sales reports and a lack of negative headlines suggest continued buying interest, though global supplies remain adequate.
South American planting is progressing well under mostly favorable weather. Widespread moisture has improved field conditions in many regions while delaying activity in others. Strong prior purchasing programs have encouraged Brazil, Argentina, and neighboring countries to expand acreage this season to sustain export momentum. Weather models continue to monitor developing La Niña conditions, which could introduce drier risks for southern Brazil and Argentina. Technically, November ’25 futures broke through the $11.00 mark to new contract highs before pulling back on light profit-taking and farmer sales. The RSI indicator moved above 80, signaling overbought conditions. The U.S. export window remains narrow as South American supplies come online by late Q1 2026, tempering bullish enthusiasm.
Key Levels: Resistance at $11.35–$11.50. Support at $10.85–$10.70, with deeper levels near $10.50–$10.35.
Wheat
Wheat futures reversed sharply lower this week after recent strength, following gains in row crops and short covering earlier in the month. December ’25 futures tested bullish targets near $5.50 before dropping nearly 30 cents as new short positions emerged and traders adjusted ahead of next week’s crop report. Strong global production and replenished inventories continue to limit upside potential, while favorable winter planting conditions further restrain momentum.
Reports of Chinese purchases provided brief support but failed to offset renewed selling pressure. With stocks at comfortable levels, expectations are growing for reduced U.S. acreage in upcoming seasons, providing longer-term price support. The Black Sea region remains central to global trade flow, as Russian exports continue to satisfy import demand. Technically, futures retreated toward support around the 100-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI readings above 70 point to near-term consolidation.
Key Levels: Resistance at $5.50–$5.75. Support at $5.25–$5.10. 
Sugar
Sugar futures extended their decline, setting new contract lows twice this week before stabilizing just above $0.1400 for March ’26 futures into the weekend. From the October 7th high of $0.1688, prices have fallen 284 ticks in one month, suggesting short-term exhaustion. However, without fresh bullish catalysts, downside risk persists. The recent technical breakdown pushed the RSI near oversold territory, though additional weakness remains possible if market sentiment fails to improve.
Global production continues to rise among major exporters, replenishing stocks and encouraging some countries to expand export programs. This recovery in supply has weighed heavily on prices, even as traders eye value opportunities at multi-year lows. The overall tone remains bearish but cautious given oversold conditions.
Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1450–$0.1500. Support at $0.1375–$0.1350. 
