Soybeans
Soybean futures rose to multi-month highs this week, driven by optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade relations and confirmation of additional Chinese purchases. Reports suggesting a possible extension of the current trade truce sparked buying, with speculative participation and short-covering accelerating the advance.
The market largely discounted a neutral-to-bearish WASDE update, which raised Brazil’s production estimate to a record 180.0 MMT. While Brazil’s rapid harvest pace and currency dynamics present potential headwinds, demand signals from China have remained the dominant driver. Sustaining the rally will likely depend on continued evidence of export follow-through and confirmation of durable demand.
Key Levels: Closed above resistance near $11.39, aligned with the 23.6% retracement area. Further support is established near the $11.00 psychological level, with additional downside support near $10.60.
Corn
Corn futures tracked the broader grain complex higher this week, rebounding from an initial post-WASDE dip as strength in soybeans encouraged short-covering and renewed buying interest. The USDA report offered modestly supportive adjustments, trimming U.S. ending stocks by 100 million bushels on improved export demand, though the immediate market reaction was subdued.
Attention remains divided between firm U.S. export sales and evolving South American production estimates. CONAB reduced its Brazilian output forecast, while the USDA maintained its estimate at 131 MMT, reinforcing a mixed global supply narrative. With traders closely monitoring South American weather patterns, cautious optimism has emerged, though the overarching presence of ample global supplies is likely to temper sustained upside momentum.
Key Levels: Initial resistance is noted near $4.35, corresponding to the 50% retracement level, with heavier selling pressure expected near $4.45. Support is developing near recent lows around $4.20.
Wheat
Wheat futures posted strong gains this week, with March SRW climbing to its highest level since mid-November as technical buying and short-covering fueled momentum. A breakout from the recent trading range forced managed money participants to reduce short exposure, reinforcing the upward move.
Supportive headlines included concerns over potential winterkill in Russia due to ice formation, though the extent of damage remains uncertain. Strong weekly U.S. export sales, including business with Indonesia, added to constructive sentiment. Despite the recent strength, the broader global supply backdrop remains ample, suggesting rallies may require either confirmed weather threats or sustained demand improvement to extend further.
Key Levels: Support is established near the breakout zone around $5.30. Resistance is defined near $5.50, with additional upside potential toward $5.68 on continued strength.
Sugar
Sugar futures experienced volatile trade this week, falling to a five-year nearest-futures low before staging a sharp technical recovery. Persistent expectations for sizeable global surpluses in both the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons have weighed heavily on sentiment, with strong production from Brazil and India reinforcing the bearish supply outlook.
The steep decline pushed prices into technically oversold territory, prompting fund short-covering and technical buying that fueled a late-week rebound. Additional strength in the expiring London ICE white sugar contract contributed to the recovery. Despite the bounce, the prevailing fundamental narrative remains one of abundant supply, limiting confidence in sustained upside follow-through.
Key Levels: Support failed near 14.00, which now may turn into near-term resistance. Additional resistance is expected to near 14.75, with additional selling pressure likely near 15.00.
