Soybeans
January soybeans settled at $12.34 1/4 on Friday, down 1/2 cent on the day and 34 1/4 cents, or 2.7%, on the week. That's the lowest close since August 18 and the 3rd straight weekly loss.
President Lula won Sunday's runoff with 51.8% of the vote after finishing 2nd in the first round, which Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain, a grain market advisory firm, noted no candidate had done before in Brazil's modern democratic history (Kalshi, a U.S. prediction market, had Flávio Bolsonaro at 88% in mid-October). The Brazilian real fell as much as 12% Monday, to 5.60 per dollar from Friday's 4.98, before closing at 5.42, down 8.8%. Charlie Sernatinger of Marex, a commodities brokerage, pointed at the 5.6 print that morning and expected heavy Brazilian farmer selling, since the farmer's export price rose 12% in local currency overnight. Arlan Suderman of StoneX, a commodities brokerage, wrote that a cheaper real won't touch Chinese buying, "which is occurring for political reasons rather than economic reasons anyway," but it does help ration away the non-China business.
U.S. demand numbers stayed strong: export inspections of 91 million bushels were the biggest weekly total in 2 years (China took 67%), weekly sales of 94.7 million bushels kept cumulative commitments at 1.057 billion, up 80.4% on the year and the fastest pace in 4 years per StoneX's Mike Castle. Additionally the USDA announced 417,150 metric tons of flash sales to unknown destinations Wednesday and Friday.
Managed money cut its net long by 27,544 contracts to 193,781 as of Tuesday, the 3rd straight weekly cut. The current position is the smallest long since August 18 and 71,378 contract below the September 22 record. Marex's Tim Bulfer summed up the mood Monday: many funds and traders are still long and have watched those longs go "from profits to big losses."
Watch the real and the Brazilian weather together. Center-west Brazil has been drying for about 10 days and Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc., an agricultural weather forecasting firm, called it "far from a crisis, but it is becoming more serious." Agronomist Michael Cordonnier, as cited by the farm market newsletter Pro Farmer, held his Brazil soybean production estimates at 182 million metric tons. Conab, Brazil's government crop agency, reports planting at 43% against a 40% average. November 10th is WASDE day, when USDA releases its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Watch for potential yield revisions to the U.S. crop yield projections. With the North American Harvest wrapping up, attention is quickly turning to Brazilian weather and currency forecasts.
Sugar
March raw sugar settled at 19.36 cents per pound on Friday, down 0.11 on the day and 0.88 cents, or 4.3%, on the week. That's the biggest weekly drop since mid-September. Most of the loss came on Monday, when the contract fell 1.14 cents, or 5.6%, to 19.10, the lowest close since October 1.
Brazil produces around 54% of the world's exportable sugar. A weaker real raises the price Brazilian mills receive in local currency, so mills sell and hedge more of their sugar sooner. The Real lost 8.8% on Monday alone and closed the week down a total of 9.5%.
Supply forecasts from Brazil and India point to a global sugar deficit. At its conference Monday, Datagro, a Brazilian sugar and ethanol consulting firm, forecast a global deficit of 3.92 million metric tons in 2026/27 after a 730,000 ton surplus in 2025/2026. Datagro president Plínio Nastari said rain has cost Brazil's Center-South, the country's main sugarcane region, 28.6 milling days since April 1 against a 13.6 day average. That's about 50 million tons of cane that would normally have been crushed by now. Datagro expects the Center-South to crush 640.5 million tons of cane in 2026/27, up 4.8% from 2025/26. But sugar content is down 2.2%, and mills are sending only 46.7% of the cane to sugar against 50.4% last year. That leaves total expected sugar output at 38.4 million tons, 2 million below last season.
In India, Dilip Patil of the Indian Federation of Green Energy, an Indian renewable fuels industry group, told the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, this week that 2026/27 output could fall 15% to 27 million tons against consumption of 28.5 to 29 million. That's a structural domestic deficit of 1.5 to 2.5 million tons. India is the second largest cane sugar producer in the world, and typically a net exporter. The structural deficit suggests that it will be some time before the Indian government removes the restrictions on exports.
Funds cut their net long by 26,819 contracts to 237,711 as of Tuesday. The current position is down from last week's 52-week high of 264,530 but is still large by historical standards.
Watch the Real first. If it steadies, as it did Tuesday through Thursday, traders could shift their focus back to the supply deficit. The next Center-South production report, covering the 2nd half of October, will show whether the rain delays Nastari described are getting better or worse. In India, watch how quickly mills start crushing, which will show whether output is on track for Patil's 27 million ton forecast. The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), India's sugar mill trade group, reported 107 mills crushing as of Monday.
Wheat
December Chicago wheat settled at $6.03 1/2 on Friday, down 1/4 cent on the day and 21 1/2 cents, or 3.4%, on the week. That's the 9th straight weekly loss. Wednesday's $5.99 close was the first under $6 since June 29. The contract has given back $1.80 1/2, or 23%, since its August 28 close at $7.84.
Wheat sold off on headlines that pointed to progress toward a Russia-Ukraine deal. On Monday, reports said Russia was weighing proposals to secure grain shipments. On Tuesday, Finland's and Norway's leaders phoned Putin ahead of trilateral talks planned for Abu Dhabi in November. On Wednesday, Trump said a Putin-Zelensky meeting would be set up "soon" and Russia issued permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov for the first time since July 10. December Chicago fell 11 1/4 cents that day.
Castle wrote that he remains skeptical of a broader settlement, but "the headlines of progress are still being met with selling pressure." By Friday only 2 grain vessels had cleared the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, per Marex. Russian grain exports are still well below normal. Vaclavik cited Russian seaborne grain exports down 62% in September to about 2 million metric tons. Russia's Baltic shipments rose to 1.2 million tons from 47,400 a year ago, but that doesn't come close to covering the drop.
U.S. weekly export sales of 31.2 million bushels were a marketing-year high and the biggest week since last November, against a top trade guess of 18.4 million. White wheat sales were the largest in a year and spring wheat sales the largest since November 2022, per Castle. On Thursday, traders heard reports that COFCO, China's state-owned grain trading company, had asked for price offers on U.S. soft red winter wheat. December Chicago wheat rose 4 3/4 cents that day. Vaclavik noted that China has not bought any U.S. corn or wheat this marketing year.
Funds extended their Chicago short by 22,601 contracts to 74,606 as of Tuesday. That's the 8th straight week of selling and the largest short since June 9.
Watch whether more ships follow the first 2 out of the Sea of Azov before the permits expire November 15. Also watch whether the strong sales week was a one-off or the start of buyers stepping in at lower prices. Cumulative U.S. sales still trail last year by 29.4%, per Castle. A confirmed Chinese purchase could entice funds to begin buying back their large short position.
Corn
December corn settled at $4.47 3/4 on Friday, down 3 1/2 cents on the day and 8 1/4 cents, or 1.8%, on the week. That's the lowest close since July 2 and the 5th straight weekly loss. The contract is 80 1/2 cents below where it closed on September 25.
Late Friday, October 23, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the USDA agency that publishes U.S. crop estimates, admitted a "processing error" in its September corn plant population and ear count data for Kansas and Nebraska. It revised the September national yield to 178.8 bushels per acre from 178.5 and left its October estimate of 181.2 unchanged.
Harvest reached 60% against a 66% average, the slowest pace since 2019, per Castle. Iowa is at 47%, 20 points behind, and rain is forecast for this weekend and most of next week.
Export demand was mixed. Export inspections of 24.6 million bushels were a 3-year low as lower cost Argentine corn has undercut U.S. offers. However, Weekly sales of 51.3 million bushels came in near the top of trade estimates, with Mexico the biggest buyer and Korea booking another 204,000 metric tons Friday. Cumulative sales of 925 million bushels still trail last year by 33.5%, the slowest pace in 3 years. Castle warned that unless sales improve steadily, USDA may have to lower its 3.300 billion bushel export forecast.
Ethanol output rose to 1.12 million barrels a day, a 13-week high.
Managed money sold 83,310 contracts to cut its net long to 81,113 as of Tuesday. That's the 6th straight weekly decline and the 3rd straight week of roughly 83,000 contracts of selling. The current position is the smallest long since July 21 and 333,347 contracts below the September 15 record. Sernatinger wrote that "the flow of capital is still out of long grains."
November 10th is WASDE day. Watch for a cut to USDA's 181.2 bushel per acre corn yield. Pro Farmer economist Spencer Langford's comparison of crop ratings and final yields points to 177.8 bushels per acre, and Marex reports Iowa and Illinois yields have been "consistently disappointing." A lower yield could give prices a reason to rally. If USDA holds near 181, the decline could continue. Bulfer wrote Friday that many traders believe the lows will be set over the next couple of weeks as harvest wraps up.