Wheat
December Chicago wheat settled at $6.25 on Friday, up 1/4 cent on the day and down 35 1/2 cents, or 5.4%, on the week, the lowest weekly close in more than 3 months.
US envoy Steve Witkoff met Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Norway Tuesday and Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg Wednesday. Reuters reported Russia had accepted a US proposal to resume trilateral talks next month, the first since February. December Chicago dropped 15 cents to $6.28 ¼.
Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain, a grain marketing advisory firm, relayed the trade's fear plainly: a ceasefire "could unleash a flood of cheap wheat exports currently backed up in the region."
Presently, however, the violence continues.
Russia's defense ministry said it struck 3 cargo vessels in the Danube port of Reni and 2 more bound for Odesa. Russia fired 21 missiles, 3 of them ballistic, at Kyiv in 3 waves the night after the Putin meeting. On Friday, a Russian drone sank the Comoros-flagged Khoryv 13 nautical miles off the Romanian coast.
Charlie Sernatinger of Marex, a commodities broker, noted European cash wheat firmed all week but that "so far that has also not manifested itself in anything but margin calls for the longs."
US demand remains weak. Weekly export sales of 8.8 million bushels were a 6-week low. Cumulative 2026/27 sales of 392 million bushels trail last year by 32.5% and now run at the slowest pace in at least 14 years, according to Mike Castle of StoneX, a commodities brokerage and financial services firm. Inspections of 8.83 million bushels were a 13-week low.
Export competition is stiff. The Rosario Grains Exchange, one of Argentina's 2 main grain exchanges, raised Argentina's crop 2.8 million metric tons to 23.8 million on early yields. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the other, held 23.4 million even after late frosts hit 15% of the crop. Argentine December wheat is offered near $247 a ton, and Russian Baltic wheat is offered near $272. By comparison, HRW free on board out of the Gulf was $303 per metric ton on October 22, according to the daily export quote from the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental group of grain-trading countries.
Looking forward, however, there may be a future supply story building. In the US, winter wheat planting reached 63% against a 69% average, which Castle says is still the slowest on record for the date. Oklahoma was 22 points and Kansas 9 points behind their 5-year paces before last week's rain. The US Drought Monitor, a weekly government drought map, shows 49% of winter wheat area in drought.
Russia's winter wheat belt is having its driest October since 2021 on Castle's crop-weighted map. The agriculture ministry trimmed its winter sowing plan to 19 million hectares from 20. Winter grain sowing is 6 points behind last year at 74%.
Still, the bears remain in control. Managed money sold Chicago wheat for a 7th straight week, pushing the net short to 52,005 contracts as of Tuesday, up 19,450 on the week and the largest since July 7. Funds were net long 14,904 contracts on September 1. The Kansas City long is down to 7,490 from 48,826 over the same stretch. December Chicago's RSI finished the week at 25.7, just above Thursday's 25.6, the lowest reading on our 12-month chart.
Watch for the November trilateral talks, and whether Russia keeps hitting ships while the diplomats meet. A real reopening of the Black Sea would likely push cheaper Russian and Ukrainian wheat onto the market and could pressure prices further. Another sinking or a collapse of the talks could put the risk premium back quickly.
Corn
December corn settled at $4.56 on Friday, down 4 1/2 cents on the day and 18 1/4 cents, or 3.8%, on the week, the lowest close in 3 1/2 months. The December contract is now 90 cents off its September 1 high of $5.46.
Despite a slow start, harvest pressure weighed on prices. In the US, corn was 44% harvested as of Sunday against a 52% average, still the slowest pace since 2019 with Iowa at 26% versus 50%. But the week was dry across the Belt, so farmers finished most of their soybeans and moved their combines to corn. Marex expects 60 to 65% of the corn to be in by the middle of next week.
The funds did most of the selling. Managed money cut its net long another 82,002 contracts to 164,423 as of Tuesday, the second straight week of 80,000-plus liquidation. In 5 weeks, 250,037 contracts have come off the September 15 record of 414,460. That's the smallest long since August 11. The trade had only been looking for 40,000 of selling.
US export demand was mixed. Export inspections of 26.47 million bushels for the week ended October 15 were the lowest for any week since October 2024 and dropped cumulative shipments 2.3% behind last year after a record start. But Thursday's export sales of 60.1 million bushels were a 6-week high that beat the top estimate. Mexico was the largest buyer. Castle noted buyers stepping in "to take advantage of the break lower in prices." Cumulative sales of 874 million bushels still trail last year by 33.8%, the slowest since 2023, against USDA's 3.300 billion bushel target. Korea booked 185,000 metric tons across 3 tenders during the week. Marex has the US "getting more competitive" against South American corn into the Far East.
Domestic demand held up. Ethanol ran 1.094 million barrels a day, a 5-week high. Stocks are up 12% from a year ago, and Corn Belt margins are 20 to 65 cents a gallon positive by Reuters' math.
Washington also sent farmers more money.
President Trump announced an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program to cover diesel costs, with payment rates due in November. Marex says the program takes this year's farm subsidies to a record $55 billion. Castle notes that because the payments arrive after harvest, farmers may buy fertilizer earlier than usual in an already tight phosphate market.
Outside the US, supply news was mixed. Michael Cordonnier of Pro Farmer, a farm market newsletter, raised Brazil's corn crop 2 million tons to 140 million on more acres and a good start in the south. AGPM, the French corn growers' association, has France's crop at 7.04 million tons, the smallest since 1976. China imported just 2.11 million tons of corn in the first 9 months of the year.
On the chart, corn is oversold. December corn's RSI finished at 23.3, with the 200-day moving average at $4.80.
Watch for Monday's crop progress and whether a 60%-plus corn harvest number brings the last of the farmer hedge selling forward. Also watch Thursday's export sales to see whether the 60 million bushel week was a one-off or the start of the buying pace needed to reach USDA's 3.3 billion bushel export forecast.
The Fed meets Wednesday with a hike on the table, the midterms are November 3, and WASDE is November 10. If sales keep running 50 to 60 million bushels a week while combines finish, prices may stop falling, as the oversold RSI readings of the past 2 weeks have suggested. If the funds keep selling at this pace, they still hold 164,423 long contracts they could sell. Sub-$4.50 corn could be in the cards.
Soybeans
November soybeans settled at $12.56 1/2 on Friday, up 3 1/2 cents on the day and down just 4 3/4 cents on the week, the best performer of the 4 markets we follow.
China was busy buying soybeans this week. USDA reported flash sales on 7 straight business days through Thursday, the longest streak in 3 years by Castle's count. The sales were 114,000 metric tons to China and 261,000 to unknown destinations Monday, 612,000 to China Tuesday, 134,000 to China and 165,000 to Spain Wednesday, and 202,000 to China Thursday. That's 1.49 million tons, or 54.7 million bushels, in 4 days on top of last week's 69 million. Vaclavik puts China's flash-sale total since October 14 at roughly 2.4 million tons, 89 million bushels.
The weekly data confirmed the buying. Thursday's export sales report, the first to capture it, printed 104.4 million bushels for the week ended October 15, the largest week since November 2023, with 80 million of it to China. Cumulative 2026/27 sales of 963 million bushels now run 80.7% ahead of last year, the hottest pace since 2022. Inspections of 73.6 million bushels were the biggest since December 2024, and 47.1 million of them were bound for China.
Still, prices did not respond.
Pro Farmer's newsletter tallies China's commitments at 15.1 million tons confirmed plus 6.2 million under unknown destinations, for 21.3 million against the 25 million ton pledge. It blames the weak price reaction on fund selling: "either funds are in liquidation mode and ignoring fundamentals or that Chinese demand was already priced in. We sit in the former camp."
Fund positioning supports that view.
Managed money cut its net long 28,482 contracts to 221,325 as of Tuesday, the smallest since August 25 and 43,834 under the September 22 record. The November contract's open interest fell from 289,000 last Friday to 191,000 Thursday as traders rolled and liquidated positions ahead of Friday's options expiration.
Supply also limited gains. In the US, harvest reached 64% against a 65% average, with Nebraska at 52% versus 71% and Iowa 57% versus 74%. Marex expects the US bean harvest to be "essentially done" by this time next week. Pro Farmer notes record yields are "the norm rather than the exception" in Crop Tour states and says USDA's 53.1 bushel yield is more likely to rise than fall. Crush use of about 201 million bushels in September was the lowest since August 2025, even though crushers are earning about $2.50 a bushel against a $1.38 long-run average and soyoil stocks are at a 12-year low.
In Brazil, planting is off to a good start: Conab, Brazil's government crop agency, has planting at 30% against a 26% average. Cordonnier lifted his crop estimate 2 million tons to 182 million, and the forecasts turned wetter for central Brazil.
China's own data was mixed. September imports of 11.88 million tons were down 7.7% from a year ago, and Brazil supplied 90% of them. Sinograin, which manages China's state grain reserves, moved only 59% of the 500,000 tons it offered at Tuesday's reserve auction at a clearance price $20 a ton under the prior sale, and it will offer another 512,000 tons October 27. On the other side, Marex carried Thursday rumors that Sinograin had priced futures and Cofco, China's state-owned food trader, was buying for its own crush, and beans rose on the rumors.
Watch for whether the flash sales resume Monday after Friday's pause. Thursday's export sales will show how much of the 2.4 million tons landed in the week ended October 22. First notice day for November is October 30, and January becomes the main contract from here.
Brazil's presidential runoff is Sunday. A Bolsonaro win would likely firm the real and slow Brazilian farmer selling, which could lend support, while a Lula surprise might do the opposite. With the harvest nearly done, the farmer hedge selling Pro Farmer blames for capping rallies may fade over the next 2 weeks. Beans are already outperforming corn, as Marex expected. If the funds have finished liquidating, 7 straight days of Chinese buying and a 104 million bushel sales week may eventually lift prices. If they haven't, Wednesday's low of $12.35 3/4 is the level to watch.
Sugar
March raw sugar settled at 20.24 cents per pound on Friday, up 0.11 on the day and down 0.61 cents, or 2.9%, on the week, giving back all of last week's gain.
This week analysts projected a larger global deficit, but prices fell anyway. Green Pool, an Australian sugar research firm, raised its 2026/27 global deficit to 6.28 million metric tons on Tuesday, 3 million above its previous number and a 4-year high. It cut its estimates for Brazil's Center-South to 37.3 million tons, the EU to 12.44 million, and India by 300,000 to 400,000 tons on losses from the early crushing start. It puts Center-South sugar output through September 14% behind last year.
Rain is slowing the harvest In Brazil. Datagro, a Brazilian sugar and ethanol consultancy, estimates the rain could leave more than 35 million tons of cane standing in the field for next season, the most on record against 24 million in 2015/16. Mills around Ribeirão Preto have pushed the end of their harvest from late November to early December after 44% above-normal rain in September.
India's news was mixed. The state-run oil company's October 16 tender excluded ethanol made from cane juice, syrup and B-heavy molasses for 2026/27. Barchart, a market data and news firm, read that as a supply positive since the cane goes to sugar instead, and Maharashtra mills say it costs them about 70 billion rupees of revenue. ICRA, an Indian credit rating agency, now projects India's 2027 output at 27 to 28 million tons against 28.3 million of consumption, with closing stocks under 2 months of use. The 2025/26 crop estimate was cut to 30.6 million from 34.3. The government also extended its duty-free 1 million ton raw sugar import window to December 31. Only 260,000 tons have been imported so far because imported sugar still costs more than domestic sugar.
Weather and fund positioning helped push prices lower. Forecasts called for hot, dry weather across Brazil's Center-South this week, which would let mills harvest and crush cane faster. At the same time, the funds already held a near-record bet on higher prices. Managed money added 4,981 contracts to its net long, bringing it to 264,530 as of Tuesday. That's the largest since August 2021 and just 3,806 contracts short of the all-time record. Prices then fell 39 points on Wednesday and Thursday. Because the funds had already bought so much, few buyers were left to support prices once the forecast pointed to a faster harvest.
Typical bullish narratives failed to lift prices.
A weaker dollar usually supports sugar because it makes dollar-priced sugar cheaper for buyers outside the US. The dollar index slipped from 101.84 to 101.61 through Thursday, and sugar fell anyway. Brent crude also rose to a 6-month high above $116 on Friday. Higher oil prices make ethanol more profitable, which can push Brazilian mills to turn more of their cane into ethanol instead of sugar. Even so, March sugar rose only fractionally higher on Friday.
Watch for the first-half October Center-South crush report. UNICA, Brazil's sugarcane industry association, has had its fortnightly series on hold since June, so the numbers have been coming from Brazil's Agriculture Ministry. It will be the first hard read on whether the dry week let mills catch up on standing cane. A strong crush number could push prices lower, while confirmation that cane is being left in the field would likely lift them.
Sunday's Brazilian runoff will likely have a meaningful impact on the real. India's crushing season is also worth watching. In the state of Karnataka, farmers have paused a protest that held up crushing, but only until a November 26 deadline. The first weeks of crushing will show how much sugar India actually makes and whether it will need to import sugar. That matters because every global deficit estimate depends on India's crop. India's duty-free import window runs to December 31, but only 260,000 of the allowed 1 million tons have come in because imported sugar still costs more than Indian sugar. If world prices fall close to India's domestic price, Indian buyers could start importing, and that buying would support world prices.
Fund positioning presents risks in both directions. A fund long within 3,806 contracts of the all-time record in a market that just fell 4 days straight may be more exposed to a fast liquidation than to a fast extension. But the deficit numbers keep growing, and a short-covering move off the 20-cent area could be just as fast.
Where the funds are positioned across 15 agricultural and soft commodity markets, and how far that sits from the last year’s range.