Corn
Corn futures advanced steadily throughout the week, posting gains each session before meeting firm resistance into the weekend. December 2025 contracts tested support at the 20- and 50-day moving averages, rebounded to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci level, then stalled as momentum faded. Buying interest was sparked by firming cash markets, with elevators bidding for supply while farmers move grain into storage. Strength in ethanol output also lent support as production rose week over week.
The market recovered from prior weakness tied to expectations of record U.S. production and ongoing U.S.–China trade friction. Hopes for renewed diplomacy, with reports that Presidents Trump and Xi may meet in South Korea later this month, provided a modest lift. Short covering fueled much of the week’s advance. Still, a record U.S. harvest and rapid progress in South American planting remain overarching headwinds. With the government shutdown limiting access to demand data, traders continue to operate with limited visibility.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.25–$4.35, with stronger selling pressure near $4.50 if a breakout occurs. Support at $4.15, followed by $4.05–$3.90.
Soybeans
Soybean futures found support early in the week, climbing through the 20-day moving average and consolidating near the 50% Fibonacci retracement just below $10.20 for November 2025. Firm cash basis levels continue to reflect farmer reluctance to sell, forcing commercial processors to compete for supplies. ADM’s announcement of a deferred-pricing program sought to spur movement, yet futures failed to generate sustained strength as trade tensions with China persisted.
Secretary Bessent and his Chinese counterpart are expected to hold talks in what could mark a small step toward progress. However, with South America capturing most of China’s demand and its own planting season off to a strong start, U.S. export prospects remain muted. Favorable early-season weather in Brazil and Argentina points to rising acreage and ample global supply. Absent a trade breakthrough or policy update, the market appears poised for choppy consolidation.
Key Levels: Resistance at $10.25–$10.35, with stronger selling near $10.50. Support around $10.00 and $9.90–$9.75.
Wheat
Wheat futures remained under pressure as bearish sentiment persisted and rallies proved short-lived. December 2025 contracts slipped to key support near $5.00 before recovering modestly on short covering. In sympathy with row-crop strength, wheat managed a limited rebound, but oversupply continues to weigh on prices. Ample global production and rebuilding of U.S. stocks have dulled buying interest.
Winter-wheat planting is progressing on schedule and should conclude within six weeks. Depressed prices could lead to acreage reductions for winter and spring crops, though demand continues to center on the Black Sea region, where Russian exports dominate trade flows. With the government shutdown restricting visibility into U.S. export activity, traders remain cautious.
Key Levels: Support at $4.90–$4.75. Resistance at $5.20–$5.35.
Sugar
Sugar futures rolled into the March 2026 contract and quickly lost momentum, sliding from an October 7 high of $0.1688 to a recent low of $0.1536. Prices have since steadied just above contract lows amid headline-driven volatility. Improved production prospects and rising supply expectations for next year have shifted sentiment toward balance.
Private forecasts released in recent weeks differ on the magnitude of the global surplus but agree on continued oversupply into 2026. With strong production seasons allowing several exporters to maintain shipments even after domestic and ethanol allocations, upside potential remains limited. Absent fresh bullish news, futures may consolidate near current levels.
Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1580–$0.1615. Support at $0.1550–$0.1525, with risk of a dip below $0.1500 on renewed weakness.