Corn
Corn futures experienced choppy, two-sided trade this week, drawing early support from a spillover rally in wheat and a weaker U.S. dollar. That strength proved short-lived, however, as technical pressure and the backdrop of ample global supplies continued to cap upside attempts. Weather remained a central focus, with persistent cold across parts of the U.S. slowing logistics, while South American conditions offered a mixed outlook. Forecasts for hot, dry weather in Argentina have raised some production concerns, though Brazil’s crop conditions remain largely favorable. With traders now looking ahead to the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings Report, the market appears comfortable trading within a familiar range, with weather headlines and outside market influences driving short-term direction.
Key Levels: Initial resistance is defined near the early July highs at $4.34 1/4 and $4.40 3/4. Support is established near $4.26 3/4, with additional downside protection around $4.20 1/2.
Soybeans
Soybean futures found early-week support from strength in the soyoil market, rallying to a six-week high before momentum faded. The advance stalled near the 100-day moving average, where technically overbought conditions triggered a corrective pullback into late-week trade. Fundamentally, the market continues to face conflicting signals. While weather concerns persist in Argentina, strong early harvest yields in Brazil are reinforcing expectations for ample supplies. Reports of China shifting demand toward cheaper Brazilian origin have further limited upside potential for U.S. futures. Near-term direction is likely to hinge on South American weather developments and whether U.S. exports can remain competitive.
Key Levels: Resistance builds near the June highs at $10.68 1/2 and $10.84 1/2. Downside support is seen near $10.57, followed by stronger support around $10.32 3/4.
Wheat
Wheat futures led the grain complex higher this week, with SRW contracts surging to a 10-month high amid aggressive fund-driven short covering. The rally was sparked by winterkill concerns as bitter cold gripped portions of the U.S. and, more importantly, the Black Sea region. A sharply weaker U.S. dollar added fuel to the move, improving the competitiveness of U.S. wheat on the global stage. As speculative short positions were reportedly reduced, the technical landscape improved significantly, shifting the near-term bias higher as momentum indicators turned supportive.
Key Levels: Initial resistance is located near the Oct. 27 high at $5.45 1/2, with further resistance near the Nov. 3 high at $5.58 3/4. Support is developing near the Oct. 31 low at $5.34 1/4.
Sugar
Sugar futures remained under pressure this week, with the March ’26 contract sliding to a 2.5-month low amid mounting expectations for a sizable global surplus in the 2025/26 season. India’s return as a major exporter has been a key driver, with production running 22% above year-ago levels from October through mid-January and export approvals already reaching 1.5 MMT. Additional supply recovery in Thailand and the European Union has further reinforced the bearish supply outlook. With the market well supplied and industrial buyers showing limited urgency, downside pressure continues to dominate price action.
Key Levels: Support is developing near the recent low around 14.40¢/lb. Resistance is expected to emerge between 15.00¢/lb and 15.25¢/lb.