Grains & Sugar Weekly Recap 04/04/2025

Corn

Corn futures came under pressure this week as tariffs, a bearish acreage update, and fading demand expectations weighed on sentiment. Ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, fund positions shifted from net long to net short, reflecting growing concerns over trade tensions and rising U.S. supply.

The USDA confirmed a major jump in planted area, reporting 95.326 million acres—up 5 million from last year. That headline triggered a wave of profit-taking, but prices held up relatively well following the April 2nd tariff announcement from President Trump. Still, demand could soften in the months ahead as global buyers react to shifting trade policies.

In South America, Brazil’s Safrinha crop remains a key factor to watch. Roughly 25% of southeastern growing regions are experiencing stress, while the remainder are in neutral condition. In the U.S., attention is turning to planting weather. The first progress report is due Monday, offering clues on southern state activity. Heavy rains have caused some delays, but the season remains early enough for flexibility.

From a technical perspective, futures remain range-bound. Support holds near the 200-day moving average at $4.53 and the recent low at $4.42. Resistance begins at the 20-day average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4.60, with stronger resistance in the $4.65–$4.80 zone, where the 50- and 100-day averages converge with the 38.2% and 50% retracements.

Key Levels: Support at $4.53–$4.42. Resistance at $4.60, building into $4.80.

Soybeans

Soybean futures took a hit this week, dropping nearly 65 cents from high to low. While Monday’s acreage estimate showed a 3.55 million acre decline to 83.495 million, traders were already positioned long soybeans and short corn, leading to spread unwinding and downside pressure. Modest price support came from headlines suggesting increased biofuels demand and a U.S. meal export sale, but the positive action was fleeting.

The April 2nd tariff announcement undercut the recovery, sending futures tumbling through key support. USDA stocks data reinforced ideas of adequate U.S. supplies, while harvest across South America continues to expand rapidly. U.S. export sales ticked higher this week, but overall demand remains soft, with China sourcing more from Brazil and Argentina.

Brazil’s cash basis remains firm, and Argentine farmers are storing grain as the peso weakens—both potential signs of underlying demand. Still, the technical outlook remains neutral to bearish. Bears reached downside targets near $9.70, with $9.50 the next objective. Resistance starts near $10.00, with heavier pressure expected around $10.25.

Key Levels: Resistance at $10.00–$10.25. Support at $9.70, with risk down to $9.50.

Wheat

Wheat futures extended their decline from mid-March, falling nearly 60 cents before rebounding into and after the quarterly stocks and acreage report. Prices briefly tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement before sliding back toward key support near the contract low of $5.17 ½.

While the USDA stocks number came in close to expectations, total wheat acreage was lower than any trade estimates—potentially near record lows. If production issues arise, that may help stabilize prices. Global headlines added support, with tighter Russian supplies and limited exports from Australia, where hot and dry weather caps production outlooks.

U.S. export demand picked up last week, though overall sentiment remains cautious amid tariff uncertainty. Technically, support holds near $5.25, with a test of the $5.00 level still in sight. Resistance is expected near $5.35, with heavier selling pressure around $5.50–$5.75.

Key Levels: Support at $5.25 down to $5.00. Resistance at $5.35–$5.75.

Sugar

Sugar futures walked a tightrope this week, ending near key support levels. The market felt pressure from ongoing trade concerns. As is typical in the sugar market, directional momentum amplified moves—futures initially dropped before bouncing off major technical support.

Traders responded to speculation around potential production issues, which helped lift prices. Still, there's ample room for volatility. Resistance remains strong above $0.1900, with heavy overhead pressure at $0.1950–$0.2000. On the downside, support was confirmed near Friday’s close and extends to $0.1825.

Technically, major moving averages are converging between $0.1883–$0.1931, adding to the significance of this range. Prices also hover near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, keeping the market technically balanced heading into the weekend.

Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1950–$0.2000. Support at $0.1880–$0.1825.