Corn futures opened the week under pressure as favorable planting weather pushed prices lower from recent highs just shy of the $5.00 mark. The correction aligned with timely planting progress, prompting many traders to treat the recent rally as a selling opportunity.
Despite the pullback, the tightening domestic and global supply picture continues to offer underlying support. Futures retreated toward nearby technical support, and the market now awaits fresh bullish catalysts—potentially in the form of new demand signals or updated weather forecasts—as we move closer to summer.
This week’s export activity offered some encouragement. Two flash sales and solid Thursday export numbers provided demand-side support. Technically, we see resistance firm between $4.85–$5.00, with minor resistance just below that range. Light support likely sits right beneath current levels, with firmer interest in the $4.50 area.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.85–$5.00 and support at $4.65–$4.50.
Soybean futures followed a similar path to corn, weakening early in the week amid strong planting progress and neutral weather conditions. Recent rainfall helped replenish soil moisture across previously dry U.S. regions, tempering near-term weather concerns.
As prices dipped, technical buyers stepped in near key levels, aided by the convergence of major moving averages and the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone. Midweek support also emerged from an export sale to an unknown destination and better-than-expected weekly export figures on Thursday.
Looking ahead, traders remain focused on trade headlines. Reports late in the week indicated that China is open to further tariff discussions, which could influence sentiment. Until fresh data emerges, soybean futures are likely to remain range-bound, with downside support between $10.45–$10.30 and resistance between $10.65–$10.80.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.65–$10.80 and support at $10.45–$10.30.
Wheat futures tumbled more than 50 cents from mid-April highs, reaching new contract lows at $5.23¼ on the July ’25 contract. Favorable weather across the U.S. Plains improved winter wheat crop conditions, with good/excellent ratings rising 4%. Spring wheat planting also progressed, although incoming rains may introduce localized delays.
Geopolitical risk remains a wildcard. Ongoing hostilities in Ukraine and persistent dryness across the Black Sea region cloud the bearish global supply outlook. In Russia, private analysts have nudged export estimates slightly higher as basis levels softened. Meanwhile, Europe presents a mixed picture: France’s crop looks solid, while yields in other regions remain questionable.
Technically, long-term value looks to be near $5.00, with resistance initially at $5.50 and stronger overhead barriers between $5.65–$5.80.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.65–$5.80 and support at $5.00.
Sugar futures continued their descent this week, with July ’25 contracts sliding through key Fibonacci retracement levels amid mounting bearish fundamentals. Reports from India signaled weaker-than-expected demand, while global trade flows remain constrained by ongoing tariff friction.
In Brazil, early harvest results point to favorable yields, easing previous supply concerns. However, the harvest is still in its early stages, and much of the crop remains uncut. Recent rains supported crop development, but pressure on prices persisted as speculative sellers gained momentum.
Futures settled near the 76.4% retracement level, with the next downside target sitting around the contract low of $0.1643. On further declines below $0.1700–$0.1675, look for profit-taking and end-user buying to emerge. Resistance likely sits between $0.1775–$0.1800 on a moderate rebound.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.1775–$0.1800 and support at $0.1700–$0.1675.