Corn
Corn futures faced early week pressure from profit-taking tied to planting progress but found stability as futures tested key technical support levels. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed strong momentum, with 12% of U.S. corn now planted, alongside forecasts that delivered much-needed moisture to dry regions while allowing other areas to advance fieldwork.
While domestic planting remains the primary focus, attention is also fixed on ongoing tariff negotiations, with any updates posing potential market-moving risks. Still, Thursday’s strong export report reinforced solid overall demand. Importers remain active securing supplies during this period of trade uncertainty.
Technically, futures found footing near the $4.70 area, where the convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, along with a Fibonacci retracement level, all provided support. Near-term action looks to stay range-bound, with the market awaiting further clarity on U.S. planting, demand flows, and South American developments. Holding near the 50% Fibonacci level at $4.80 remains the immediate target, with resistance building between $4.90–$5.00 and downside support expected between $4.70–$4.60.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.90–$5.00 and support at $4.70–$4.60.
Soybeans
Soybean futures posted a strong performance this week, driven by positive headlines from Washington that helped ease tensions with China. Statements suggesting ongoing discussions and the possibility of tariff reductions spurred short-covering across the market.
Despite the bounce, fundamental demand remained weak, with no fresh sales reported and another disappointing export sales figure on Thursday—reaffirming China’s pivot toward South American supplies.
While the rally was encouraging, price action remains capped near $10.50, with further resistance looming higher. Favorable U.S. planting conditions, ample South American supplies, ongoing poor U.S. demand, and comfortable stock levels suggest that rallies will face heavy pressure near $10.75–$11.00. Initial support sits around $10.25, with $10.00 acting as a key psychological level if momentum fades.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.75–$11.00 and support at $10.25 and $10.00.
Wheat
Wheat futures struggled this week. Futures broke lower, testing critical support below $5.30 as traders displayed little interest in maintaining long exposure.
Despite narratives suggesting a build in global wheat supplies, ongoing adversity in key production regions—including dryness across the Black Sea and logistical disruptions from continued fighting in Ukraine—casts doubt on the bearish storyline. While ceasefire hopes persist, recent reports indicate that fighting continues, keeping the geopolitical backdrop uncertain.
Domestically, improved rainfall coverage across the U.S. Plains and favorable moisture across Europe helped ease some weather concerns, sapping bullish momentum. Lacking a fresh catalyst, wheat is expected to trade broad ranges moving forward. Winter wheat conditions and spring plantings will remain key focal points, alongside monitoring developments out of the Black Sea region. Key downside support lies near $5.00, while upside potential targets the $5.50 area.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.50 and support at $5.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures treaded water this week, holding close to the $0.1800 mark as markets digested improving production outlooks for Brazil and India. The shift in fundamentals triggered a swift selloff earlier this month, and traders are now waiting for new catalysts before making their next moves.
Although the outlook for global sugar production has brightened, lingering risks from last season’s tightness remain. Short-term weather forecasts for Brazil lean drier over the next 10 days, which could trim yield expectations and provide minor support to futures.
Technically, sugar remains range-bound. Immediate upside targets $0.1835, with heavier resistance building between $0.1850–$0.1875. On the downside, support has proven firm between $0.1775–$0.1750.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.1850–$0.1875 and support at $0.1775–$0.1750.