Grains & Sugar Weekly Recap 05/16/2025

Corn futures fell sharply this week, breaking more than 40 cents from the May high of $4.80 to a recent low of $4.36½ (July ’25 contract). Selling pressure emerged early and persisted throughout the week as U.S. weather remained cooperative, enabling a swift start to planting in a season burdened with high expectations.

Weekly progress reports confirmed rapid fieldwork, while neutral-to-favorable forecasts and rising Brazilian production estimates added to the bearish tone. Meanwhile, trade tensions weighed further as China continued to shift its focus to South America. This shift was highlighted by an agreement allowing DDG imports from Brazil—a market the U.S. has long dominated.

Fundamentally, futures broke key support levels, leaving limited near-term upside. While export sales remained robust and the potential for trade deals lingers, record U.S. production estimates will likely continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.55–$4.70 and support at $4.35–$4.20, with bears eyeing a move toward $4.00.

Soybeans
Soybean futures rebounded after positive developments in U.S.–China trade negotiations and a bullish USDA report. Monday’s crop report forecasted tightening U.S. stocks for both ‘24/25 and ‘25/26 marketing years, coming in below expectations.

U.S. planting progress reached the halfway point, and early-season development conditions remain favorable—likely limiting further upside price momentum. Midweek headlines raised concerns about exports if no trade agreement is reached, while private South American crop estimates climbed. Adding further weight, rumors surfaced of an EPA biofuel proposal of 4.65 billion gallons—well below the 5.25 billion producers sought—and export sales disappointed once again.

Technically, futures have pulled back to a tight band of support where four major moving averages and key Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% and 50%) converge. The market appears poised for increased volatility ahead of more clarity on trade and biofuel policy.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.70–$11.00 and support at $10.35–$10.00, with bears targeting a move toward $10.15.

Wheat
After touching a new contract low of $5.06¼ the July contract rebounded to test the 20 day moving average before being knocked down again on Friday. Domestic fundamentals remain heavy, with improving weather, rising stocks, and weakening demand weighing on sentiment.

Crop conditions in the U.S. have improved thanks to well-timed rains across winter wheat regions, while spring wheat planting is progressing steadily. Globally, Northern Hemisphere harvests are ramping up, and reports of moisture in Russia slightly eased earlier production concerns.

However, tighter U.S. stock projections and ongoing risks in the Black Sea and China have helped uncover value at these lower price levels. Early findings from the U.S. crop tour point to yield risks from a virus complex spread by wheat curl mites—an emerging threat that could lend additional support to wheat prices.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.50 and support building at $5.25–$5.00.

Sugar
Sugar futures mirrored soybeans this week, retracing early gains to settle near technical support heading into the weekend. Initial strength was fueled by optimism over trade relations and tariff talks, which helped support prices midweek.

Late in the week, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its global deficit outlook due to lower production in India and Pakistan—bolstering earlier estimates. Additionally, speculation that rising oil prices could divert more sugar to ethanol production added to the bullish undertone.

Support held near $0.1725–$0.1700, though follow-through buying lacked conviction. Without fresh drivers, prices risk revisiting sub-$0.1650 contract lows. Resistance continues to cap rallies above $0.1800—a level that is likely to hold firm into the summer months.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.1800–$0.1825 and support at $0.1725–$0.1700, with downside risk toward $0.1650.