Corn
Corn futures faced pressure after the holiday weekend due to a lack of fresh bullish fundamental inputs. Futures relinquished last week's gains within four days. This slide brought July ’25 futures back to test support near $4.50. Early week crop progress reports showed U.S. plantings nearing completion. Crop ratings also remain favorable. Neutral weather conditions in major U.S. production regions and the early Safrinha harvest in Brazil limit trade concerns. U.S. stocks are tighter than ideal. This week's announcements and sales once again confirmed active demand. However, very elevated production projections create more downside potential than upside. Current conditions show trade finding resistance at the 200-day moving average or slightly above.
Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.60–$4.65 and support from $4.45 down to $4.30, with bears eyeing the lower end of this support range.
Soybeans
Soybean futures could not hold last week’s gains. Prices slid back through key moving average technical support, testing levels just below the last moving average. Stalled U.S.–China trade negotiations, reported late in the week, made traders cautious about the timeline for any potential agreement. Chinese trade demand significantly drives soybean prices. If this demand is not met, current export projections appear overstated. Solid planting progress also pressured prices. Less than a quarter of the U.S. crop remains for planting, with two to three weeks left. More favorable weather in Argentina, allowing for better fieldwork, added to the lack of friendly news for soybeans. Futures currently sit among major moving averages. Prices need to hold this area, down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key Levels: We see resistance from $10.60 up to $11.00. A close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level would indicate a quick test of support between $10.15–$9.90.
Wheat
Wheat futures, similar to corn, struggled this week. Prices tested technical resistance at the 50-day moving average and levels near a Fibonacci retracement but failed to gather further upside strength. Favorable weather reports from China and the Black Sea region quickly eroded price premiums. SovEcon’s increased Russian production estimate of 81 MMT and export estimate of 40.8 MMT further pressured futures. Slow Chinese demand for Australian wheat reportedly increased Australia's available supplies. Traders project range-bound activity until more substantial market inputs become available. Futures retreated to technical support at the 20-day moving average.
Key Levels: We see resistance near $5.50 and support at the 20-day moving average, with bears eyeing the contract low near $5.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures tested support below $0.1700 early in the week, approaching the $0.1643 contract low. Prices declined since late March. Rising production estimates for the upcoming season, and last week's reports of a notable year-over-year increase, drove this decline. Expectations of higher production and an increased surplus will likely weigh on any price corrections. Better output in Brazil, India, and Thailand, resulting from favorable weather, fuels these expectations. Heading into the weekend, prices saw minor bounces from short covering, profit-taking, and speculation regarding Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s views on sugar. Tight supplies from the previous growing season persist. However, relief from the 2025/2026 season seems increasingly likely. This prospect will add weight to upward price movements.
Key Levels: We see resistance from $0.1750 up to $0.1810 and support below $0.1700, with bears targeting a move toward $0.1600 on further weakness.