Grains & Sugar Weekly Recap 06/27/2025

Corn

Corn futures broke through previous lows with relative ease this week, posting a new contract low before popping back fractionally ahead of the weekend on profit-taking. As mostly neutral to favorable weather conditions have persisted in the U.S., friendly bets were taken off the table.

The primary driver of the downside momentum was a massive private crop estimate out of Brazil, which, if realized, would come in significantly higher than the USDA’s June estimate. That news, combined with fractionally slower demand, took the steam out of futures and allowed prices to retreat.

Bullish catalysts were scarce this week. While traders had been cautious for weeks amid range-bound trading, the combination of favorable weather and the large South American crop estimate erased near-term support.

Technically, the market has notable downside risk, especially if the U.S. growing season remains favorable. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has ample room before reaching oversold territory, suggesting the selloff could continue.

Looking forward, traders will be closely watching for confirmation of Brazil’s production figures and any shifts in U.S. weather, as current fundamentals point toward more downside potential.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.40–$4.50 and support at $4.10–$3.95.

Soybeans

Soybean futures dove hard this week, relinquishing all of last week’s gains after testing resistance near the $10.60–$10.75 range. With a lack of fresh bullish news, prices struggled and gave back the gains with ease.

Pressure mounted from several angles. Poor U.S. demand has persisted for some time as South America absorbs global demand from key importers like China. Meanwhile, neutral-to-favorable growing conditions across much of the U.S. and escalating tensions in the Middle East added to the bearish sentiment.

Despite the sharp selloff, prices found support late in the week from profit-taking. Futures were also buoyed by headlines suggesting a potential agreement between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth minerals, which was seen as a positive step in trade relations.

The technical picture has weakened considerably. Having broken down below several layers of support, futures are now attempting to hold above the $10.00 level. Lacking friendly input, the market could be poised to test levels closer to $9.75.

Prices are projected to remain in a broad range, awaiting fresh input on this season’s U.S. crop development and any concrete developments in trade relations.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.50–$10.75 and support at $10.00, with bears targeting a move toward $9.75–$9.50.

Wheat

After a strong performance late last week, wheat futures reversed sharply, breaking down nearly 60 cents from Friday’s high. The rally was short-lived as geopolitical tensions calmed and weather conditions proved more neutral, causing prices to retreat with haste.

The bearish turn was prompted by reports of better-than-expected production for major exporter Russia. A reported ceasefire in the Middle East also eased geopolitical concerns, removing a key pillar of support for prices.

However, significant uncertainty continues to offer underlying support. Traders lack trust in initial Russian production estimates given the prolonged adversity in the region. Furthermore, the ongoing war in Ukraine creates persistent unrest and risk for global grain flows.

From a technical standpoint, futures are now sitting below all major moving averages and are testing the lower end of their Fibonacci retracement range. Traders are very cautious of follow-through weakness that could challenge contract lows.

Moving forward, the market is expected to trade in a broad range between $5.00 and $6.00, with traders hesitant to lean too negatively at these depleted price levels.

Key Levels: We see resistance near $6.00 and support at $5.25–$5.00.

Sugar

Sugar futures appear to have found a short-term floor, with buying interest consistently surfacing on any test of prices below $0.1650 of late. The market has been under pressure for some time as it digests a more favorable global supply outlook.

The bearish sentiment has been driven by better production prospects for the upcoming season. The forecasted global deficit is now at much more favorable levels after several years of tightness, and this fundamental shift continues to weigh on prices.

Support emerged late in the week from a mix of profit-taking, short-covering, and some speculative buying. The buying was tied to a new private estimate out of Brazil that came in lower than other recent forecasts, suggesting the crop, while large, might not be as bearish as previously thought.

The technical picture shows prices attempting to stabilize at depleted levels. Any move higher will face initial resistance at the 20-day moving average near $0.1671, with more significant weight between $0.1700 and $0.1725.

Traders remain cautious of leaning too heavily on the short side at these prices and await further data on this year’s production from key growers.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.1700–$0.1725 and support near the contract lows around $0.1600.