The June WASDE report provided a mixed but telling snapshot of the grain markets, with a modestly tighter outlook for corn and wheat balance sheets, while the global soybean supply remains notably flush. This month’s update reinforces our standing view that the grain markets remain in Stage #1 of the "Golden Grain Cycle," where prices are expected to continue chopping sideways around cost-of-production levels.
While the U.S. soybean balance sheet remains historically tight, a comfortable global supply continues to pose a headwind. For corn and wheat, this report offered minor bullish adjustments, but not enough to suggest a fundamental shift from the current range-bound environment. The key uncertainties of weather, geopolitical tensions, and global trade dynamics will continue to dictate price action.
CORN
The June WASDE was modestly bullish for corn, with downward revisions to both U.S. and global ending stocks.
On the domestic front, 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion. This change was driven entirely by a reduction in beginning stocks, which reflects a 50-million-bushel increase in the export forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year on the back of strong shipment and sales data.
The 2025/26 supply and demand projections for the new crop were left unchanged. This revision brings the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio down slightly to 11.3%, a level that remains adequate and suggests a neither burdensome nor overly tight domestic balance sheet.
The global picture tells a similar story of tightening supply. Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 275.2 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 2.6 MMT from the May forecast. The reduction was primarily due to cuts in foreign ending stocks for China, South Africa, India, and Canada. The global stocks-to-use ratio now tightens to approximately 21.6%. This marks a continued trend of declining global inventories, which should provide a supportive floor for prices moving forward.
SOYBEANS
It is indeed a tale of two balance sheets. This month’s report was neutral for the U.S. but bearish globally. The key takeaway is the contrast between a tight domestic supply situation and a growing global surplus.
The 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections were left completely unchanged this month. Ending stocks hold steady at 295 million bushels, leaving the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio at a fundamentally bullish 6.7%, a level that would typically be very price supportive.
However, the global balance sheet continues to tell a different story that poses a significant headwind for any sustained price rally. Global 2025/26 ending stocks were raised by 1.0 MMT to 125.3 MMT. This increase is the result of higher beginning stocks, driven by a 1-million-ton reduction in China's crush for the prior marketing year. With global production unchanged, the world stocks-to-use ratio sits at a very comfortable 29.5%. This flush global supply, particularly with record production still expected from Brazil, will likely cap the upside potential for soybean prices despite the tight U.S. outlook.
WHEAT
This month’s report offered bullish adjustments to a wheat market that remains, from a high level, fundamentally bearish. While the domestic supply is ample, reductions in both U.S. and global stocks provide some support.
The U.S. balance sheet, while still heavy, saw a bullish revision. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to 898 million. The catalyst for this change was a 25-million-bushel increase in the export forecast, attributed to strong early sales for the new marketing year, especially for Hard Red Winter wheat. Despite this reduction, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio remains at a fundamentally bearish 45.3%, indicating that the U.S. still has plenty of wheat.
The global outlook provided a more supportive tone. World ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by a significant 3.0 MMT to 262.8 MMT. The reduction was primarily due to lower ending stocks projected for Russia, the United States, Iraq, and Turkey. The global stocks-to-use ratio now stands at approximately 32.5%. While this level is not critically tight, it marks a continued multi-year trend of tightening global wheat supplies, a constructive long-term signal for prices.