March Markets in Motion: What the USDA's Latest Data Means for Grains

The USDA’s March 31st report always draws attention as it sets the stage for a new crop year. The release includes both the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports for corn, soybeans, and wheat. With fresh acreage projections and inventory data, markets now have a bit of a clearer picture to begin building expectations for the 2025–26 balance sheets.

The standout headline: U.S. farmers are projected to plant 95.3 million acres of corn, well above the average trade estimate, according to a Bloomberg survey. That number is undeniably bearish on the surface—more acres imply greater potential production, and higher supply often means lower prices, all else equal.

Yet, the reports did include something for the grain bulls as well. Wheat acreage projections came in at the low end of expectations, providing potential support to a market that has struggled to find footing. These early figures offer a jumping-off point, and traders will quickly shift focus to planting progress, weather, and global trade developments in the weeks ahead.

Corn

The USDA projects 95.3 million corn acres will be planted this year, compared to the average analyst estimate of 94.4 million and nearly 5 million more than ‘2024. This is a large number and has clear implications for the 2025–26 balance sheet. Using assumptions from the USDA’s February Ag Outlook Forum—181 bushels per acre in yield and 87.2 million harvested acres—total production could reach 15.8 billion bushels.

Add in beginning stocks of 1.54 billion bushels, and total U.S. supply could exceed 17.3 billion bushels. If usage hits the projected 15.185 billion bushels, ending stocks would rise to 2.153 billion, placing the stocks-to-use ratio above 14%. That would mark a notably more comfortable supply cushion and a bearish fundamental setup.

Grain stocks data offered little surprise. As of March 1, corn inventories totaled 8.151 billion bushels, nearly identical to the average trade guess of 8.154 billion. Despite the heavy acreage number, corn futures managed to rally—perhaps a case of “sell the rumor, buy the fact” as traders unwind recent long soybean, short corn spreads. The May contract was up 0.66% at the time of this writing.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean planted acreage is projected at 83.6 million acres, slightly below trade expectations. Applying the USDA’s expected yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, which translates to 4.339 billion bushels of production. With beginning stocks at 380 million bushels, total supply would rise to 4.719 billion.

If usage reaches the projected 4.45 billion bushels, ending stocks would fall to 269 million bushels, equating to a stocks-to-use ratio near 6%. That’s a fairly tight domestic balance sheet, and on paper, it leans friendly to bullish. However, traders remain cautious given the ample global soybean supplies and ongoing competitive pressures on U.S. exports.

Quarterly stocks came in at 1.910 billion bushels, almost exactly in line with the 1.905 billion bushel trade estimate. Despite the bullish balance sheet setup, soybeans struggled on the day, with the May contract down roughly 0.70% as of this writing.

Wheat

Wheat provided the most encouraging signal for bulls. The USDA pegged planted wheat acreage at 45.4 million, below the average analyst expectation and matching the low end of Bloomberg survey estimates.

Assuming 37 million harvested acres and a yield of 50.1 bushels per acre, total production could come in at 1.858 billion bushels. Add in beginning stocks of 794 million, and total supply rises to 2.652 billion bushels. With projected usage around 2 billion, ending stocks would land near 648 million bushels, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 32%—the tightest since 2022 and well below recent levels.

Grain stocks for wheat, however, came in above expectations at 1.237 billion bushels, suggesting current supplies remain abundant. Still, the market focused on acreage, and wheat futures responded favorably—May contracts rallied 1.7% on the day and now trade nearly 20 cents above Friday’s low of $5.17½.

Looking ahead, wheat traders will be watching for signs of a market bottom and any shifts in sentiment tied to global trade flows. In particular, the market will monitor ongoing Ukraine- Russia developments and any tariff or policy shifts that could influence export demand.