The November WASDE report offered a split set of signals. Wheat carried a clear bearish tone as global supplies stayed heavy and export interest remained soft. Soybeans shifted in the opposite direction as tightening South American expectations and steady domestic crush supported a firmer outlook. Corn sat in the middle with balanced feed use, steady ethanol demand, and stable export projections anchoring the market near current levels.
These conditions line up with the market structure we have been tracking. Wheat remains weighed down by burdensome supplies. Soybeans continue to tighten. Corn holds a neutral posture. Taken together, this keeps prices chopping around cost-of-production levels. Range-bound traders may find opportunity. Long-term allocators may view this as an early stage of the Golden Grain Cycle.
Fresh supply and demand figures matter, but they do not change the broader framework. Weather and trade policy will still dictate the next leg.
CORN
This month’s United States corn outlook was defined by offsetting revisions that produced a neutral result. The headline ending stocks figure of 2,154 million bushels landed slightly below the average analyst estimate. The route to that number required more attention than the headline suggested. A 62-million-bushel cut to the production forecast² was overshadowed by a 207-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks carried over from the September 30 Grain Stocks report.
Exports were raised by 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion as September and October shipments moved at a record pace. Even so, the increase in old-crop supply outpaced the increased usage.
The stocks-to-use ratio loosened to 13.3 percent. The balance sheet remains adequate. At the same time, ending stocks held in check despite the large upward revision in beginning stocks, which added a mild layer of support.
The global picture remained steady. World ending stocks were projected at 281.3 million metric tons, slightly below expectations. The global balance sheet was described as “down fractionally” with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.7 percent. Higher foreign production in Mexico and the European Union offset a decline in China’s ending stocks. The result is a global corn market that shows no significant tightness and no catalyst for a move out of the current range.
SOYBEANS
The soybean report carried the firmest tone of the day. USDA confirmed a tightening balance sheet in the United States and abroad. United States ending stocks fell to 290 million bushels, below the average estimate of 306 million and down 10 million from the September figure.
USDA cut production by 48 million bushels as yield slipped by 0.5 bushels per acre. Lower beginning stocks added to the squeeze. These revisions forced a pullback in use. United States exports were reduced by 50 million bushels amid limited available supplies and stronger competition from Brazil and Argentina.
The USDA also noted that the recent United States–China trade deal narrowed the price spread and reduced United States competitiveness in other destinations. Even with the export cut, the United States stocks-to-use ratio now stands at 6.7 percent, which is historically tight. The tightening remains clear and continues to support the risk of higher soybean prices.
World ending stocks declined by 2.0 million metric tons to 122.0 million, below expectations. Cuts to production in the United States, Ukraine, and India flowed through to lower projected stocks in Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. The global stocks-to-use ratio sits at 28.9 percent.
WHEAT
The wheat report was bearish. The USDA raised United States ending stocks to 901 million bushels, well above the average estimate of 869 million and up from 844 million in September.
U.S. supplies increased as production rose by 58 million bushels on a record all-wheat yield. Given that total usage was unchanged, the entire production increase moved into ending stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio reached 43.9 percent, which is a h
eavy reading. USDA lowered its season-average farm price by ten cents to five dollars per bushel.
The global outlook carried the same weight. World ending stocks were raised by 7.4 million metric tons to 271.4 million, a figure well above expectations. Production rose across nearly all major exporters. Kazakhstan, Argentina, the European Union, the United States, Australia, Russia, and Canada all posted higher forecasts. USDA noted that this would mark the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019 to 2020. With a global stocks-to-use ratio of 33.1 percent, the world remains well supplied and any sustained price rally should face a firm ceiling.