September WASDE Analysis 09/12/2025

The September WASDE report provided little in the way of fresh catalysts, largely confirming the narrative of abundant global grain supplies. Corn presented a surprising mix of bearish acreage and bullish yield/export revisions that ultimately balanced to a neutral-to-bearish outlook. Soybeans softened under the weight of a key export reduction, while wheat was caught between a supportive domestic adjustment and an overwhelmingly bearish global supply surge. Taken together, this report reinforces our framework of the Golden Grain Cycle Stage #1, where grain prices remain anchored near production costs in a choppy, sideways pattern.

This range-bound environment continues to reward systematic trading approaches and patient long-term allocators, while remaining sensitive to weather, geopolitics, and shifting trade dynamics.

CORN

he USDA delivered a mixed but broadly neutral-to-bearish update for corn. U.S. ending stocks for 2025/26 were projected at 2.110 billion bushels, comfortably above the average analyst estimate of 2.013 billion, though down slightly from August by 7 million bushels. A key bearish driver was the discovery of an additional 1.3 million harvested acres, lifting the total to 90.0 million—the largest since 1933. This was largely offset by a 2.1 bushel-per-acre cut to yields, now estimated at 186.7 bpa, alongside a robust 100-million-bushel increase to exports. The resulting U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of 13.1% reflects a market well supplied despite solid demand, implying limited upside potential in prices.

Globally, the tone was marginally more supportive. World ending stocks were trimmed by 1.1 MMT to 281.4 MMT, modestly below expectations. The decline was led by downward production revisions in the EU, Serbia, and Russia, yielding a global stocks-to-use ratio of 21.8%. While not historically tight, this continues a multi-year trend of consumption outpacing production. The divergence between the heavy U.S. balance sheet and a modestly tightening global outlook suggests U.S. corn prices may need to remain competitive to achieve USDA’s ambitious export projections.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans carried a decidedly bearish tone, led by weakening U.S. export demand. The USDA raised 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from August and above the trade’s 287-million-bushel estimate. While production edged slightly higher, the key driver was a 20-million-bushel cut to exports as U.S. beans face stiff competition from Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. A 15-million-bushel increase in crush provided partial offset, but the net effect was a looser balance sheet. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio rose to 6.9%, easing concerns of tightness and tempering price support.

On the global side, headline numbers appeared constructive, with world ending stocks reduced by 0.9 MMT to 124.0 MMT. However, the tightening was concentrated in South America, while the U.S. shouldered a greater share of global carryout. The global stocks-to-use ratio held steady at 29.3%, underscoring the reality of ample supplies. With record production expected to keep pace with consumption, global fundamentals remain a formidable headwind for sustained soybean rallies.

WHEAT

The wheat balance sheet reflected a stark contrast between friendlier U.S. revisions and a bearish global shock. U.S. ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 25 million bushels to 844 million, below the average analyst estimate of 863 million. The entire adjustment came from a stronger export forecast, lifted by 25 million bushels on robust early-season sales. Yet, even with this tightening, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio remains a burdensome 41.1%, leaving domestic supplies more than adequate.

Globally, the picture turned sharply negative. The USDA raised world ending stocks by a sizable 4.0 MMT to 264.1 MMT, well above expectations. This increase was driven by a sweeping 9.0 MMT upward revision to production, led by Australia (+3.5 MMT), the EU (+1.9 MMT), and Russia (+1.5 MMT). The result was a higher global stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%, underscoring comfortable global inventories. With foreign competitors swelling their exportable surpluses, the U.S. faces intensifying headwinds in global wheat trade, leaving Chicago futures under pressure despite modest domestic support.