---
title: September WASDE Analysis 09/12/2025
description: analysis of the July 2025 USDA WASDE Report
---

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# [September WASDE Analysis 09/12/2025](https://blog.teucrium.com/teucrium-insights/september-wasde-analysis-09/12/2025)

 Written by [Jake Hanley](https://blog.teucrium.com/teucrium-insights/author/jake-hanley) | Sep 12, 2025 6:45:05 PM

The September WASDE report provided little in the way of fresh catalysts, largely confirming the narrative of abundant global grain supplies. Corn presented a surprising mix of bearish acreage and bullish yield/export revisions that ultimately balanced to a neutral-to-bearish outlook. Soybeans softened under the weight of a key export reduction, while wheat was caught between a supportive domestic adjustment and an overwhelmingly bearish global supply surge. Taken together, this report reinforces our framework of the [**Golden Grain Cycle Stage #1**,](https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle) where grain prices remain anchored near production costs in a choppy, sideways pattern.

This range-bound environment continues to reward systematic trading approaches and patient long-term allocators, while remaining sensitive to weather, geopolitics, and shifting trade dynamics.

 

**CORN**

The USDA delivered a mixed but broadly neutral-to-bearish update for corn. U.S. ending stocks for 2025/26 were projected at **2.110 billion bushels**, comfortably above the average analyst estimate of 2.013 billion, though down slightly from August by 7 million bushels. A key bearish driver was the discovery of an additional *1.3 million harvested acres*, lifting the total to 90.0 million—the largest since 1933. This was largely offset by a *2.1 bushel-per-acre cut* to yields, now estimated at 186.7 bpa, alongside a robust *100-million-bushel increase to exports*. The resulting U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of **13.1%** reflects a market well supplied despite solid demand, implying limited upside potential in prices.

Globally, the tone was marginally more supportive. World ending stocks were trimmed by 1.1 MMT to **281.4 MMT**, modestly below expectations. The decline was led by downward production revisions in the EU, Serbia, and Russia, yielding a global stocks-to-use ratio of **21.8%**. While not historically tight, this continues a multi-year trend of consumption outpacing production. The divergence between the heavy U.S. balance sheet and a modestly tightening global outlook suggests U.S. corn prices may need to remain competitive to achieve USDA’s ambitious export projections.

 

**SOYBEANS**

Soybeans carried a *decidedly bearish* tone, led by weakening U.S. export demand. The USDA raised 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks to **300 million bushels**, up 10 million from August and above the trade’s 287-million-bushel estimate. While production edged slightly higher, the key driver was a *20-million-bushel cut to exports* as U.S. beans face stiff competition from Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. A 15-million-bushel increase in crush provided partial offset, but the net effect was a looser balance sheet. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio rose to **6.9%**, easing concerns of tightness and tempering price support.

On the global side, headline numbers appeared constructive, with world ending stocks reduced by 0.9 MMT to **124.0 MMT**. However, the tightening was concentrated in South America, while the U.S. shouldered a greater share of global carryout. The global stocks-to-use ratio held steady at **29.3%**, underscoring the reality of ample supplies. With record production expected to keep pace with consumption, global fundamentals remain a formidable headwind for sustained soybean rallies.

****

 

**WHEAT**

The wheat balance sheet reflected a stark contrast between friendlier U.S. revisions and a bearish global shock. U.S. ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 25 million bushels to **844 million**, below the average analyst estimate of 863 million. The entire adjustment came from a stronger export forecast, lifted by 25 million bushels on robust early-season sales. Yet, even with this tightening, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio remains a burdensome **41.1%**, leaving domestic supplies more than adequate.

Globally, the picture turned sharply negative. The USDA raised world ending stocks by a sizable 4.0 MMT to **264.1 MMT**, well above expectations. This increase was driven by a sweeping 9.0 MMT upward revision to production, led by Australia (+3.5 MMT), the EU (+1.9 MMT), and Russia (+1.5 MMT). The result was a higher global stocks-to-use ratio of **32.4%**, underscoring comfortable global inventories. With foreign competitors swelling their exportable surpluses, the U.S. faces intensifying headwinds in global wheat trade, leaving Chicago futures under pressure despite modest domestic support.

 

[View full post](https://blog.teucrium.com/teucrium-insights/september-wasde-analysis-09/12/2025)

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