The USDA’s latest WASDE report delivered mostly friendly news for corn and soybeans, with modest changes across all three major grain markets. Corn stood out as the biggest story, with lower U.S. ending stocks and a tightening global balance sheet. Soybeans saw slight reductions in supply and continued signs of strong demand. Wheat remains well-supplied domestically, but year-over-year global inventories continue to trend lower, keeping the long-term outlook supportive.
Corn
This was a friendly report for corn, as the USDA lowered U.S. ending stocks by 47 million bushels to 1.5 billion. Feed and residual use was cut 25 million, while exports were raised by 100 million on strong demand and competitive pricing.
The U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio now sits at 9.6%—a psychologically significant level that reinforces a bullish setup. Although expectations for a record corn crop this upcoming season remain high, the market is working off a much tighter beginning stocks number than anticipated just six months ago.
Globally, the corn balance sheet also tightened. Ending stocks came in at 287.7 million metric tons, just below the average analyst estimate of 288 million. The global stocks-to-use ratio now stands near 23%, down from 25% last year and below the 26% range held since the pandemic. This signals a fundamentally bullish shift toward tighter global supplies.
Soybeans
The soybean balance sheet saw modestly bullish adjustments. U.S. crush was raised by 10 million bushels, and imports were nudged higher, while ending stocks fell by 7 million bushels to 375 million. Soybean oil exports were revised higher, though early-season biofuel usage was reduced. That said, usage is expected to rise later in the year due to tariff impacts on competing biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil, which mostly comes from China .
The U.S. soybean stocks-to-use ratio rose slightly to 8.6%—not tight, but not flush either. Globally, soybean ending stocks were reported at 122.5 million metric tons, a touch above the 121.9 million trade estimate. That puts the global stocks-to-use ratio around 30%, a bit below the record high of 33% set in 2018/19. While not at peak levels, global inventories remain elevated, which continues to pose a headwind for soybean prices.
Wheat
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook shows larger supplies, slightly reduced domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Imports are raised by 10 million bushels to 150 million—the highest since 2017/18. Domestic use is trimmed 2 million bushels on reduced seed use, and exports are cut by 15 million to 820 million. Ending stocks rise to 846 million bushels, slightly above the average analyst estimate of 826 million.
The domestic stocks-to-use ratio climbs to 42.9%, the highest in three years— the U.S. has plenty of wheat. Globally, the balance sheet continues its tightening trend. Ending stocks were reported at 260.7 million metric tons, just above the 260.4 million average trade guess. That puts the global stocks-to-use ratio around 32%, above the key 30% psychological level but still trending lower for the fourth time in five years—a long-term bullish signal, though not yet likely to ignite significant buying interest near-term.