Tariff Uncertainty Looms: What WASDE Is (and Isn’t) Counting
The USDA’s March WASDE report maintained a consistent approach to trade policy, incorporating only tariffs and agreements that were officially in effect at the time of publication. With U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico suspended until April 2 under USMCA, they were not included in the current projections. However, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place and are accounted for in WASDE estimates.
If reciprocal tariffs between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico take effect as scheduled on April 2, future reports may reflect these changes. For now, they were excluded. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports remain unchanged and continue to shape trade expectations.
By sticking to policies that were active at the time of release, WASDE ensured a clear and consistent framework for market participants. However, with key trade deadlines approaching, tariff-related uncertainties could introduce new dynamics in the months ahead.
Corn
There were no changes in the U.S. corn balance sheet between February and March. The domestic stocks/use ratio remains relatively constricted at 10.18%. Bulls will point to the fact that the U.S. balance sheet is projected to tighten year over year. Still, bears will point out that there is plenty of U.S. corn and more to come given a successful ’25-’26 crop for which planting will begin soon. The USDA projects some 94 million corn acres may be planted, up 3.4 million acres compared to last Spring.
There were small adjustments to the global balance sheet, but the numbers were within expectations. The global balance sheet is also tightening, with the stocks/use ratio projected at 23% compared to last year’s estimated 25%. This is a fundamentally bullish factor, and yet the bears again will point out that there is still plenty of corn in the world and more coming online with the Brazilian Safrina harvest and the U.S. harvest this coming autumn.
Soybeans
There were no changes in the U.S. soybean balance sheet between February and March. The domestic stocks/use ratio remains moderately flush at 8.7%. Bulls will point out that current stocks/use levels are adequate, but with fewer soybean acres expected to be planted this Spring, the soybean balance sheet may take a hit. (Corn and soybeans are typically grown on the same acres so that a farmer may plant corn one year and switch to soybeans the next. More corn acres planted will come at the expense of fewer soybean acres planted.)
Bears, however, will point to the potential trade impacts of a new trade war with China and that there are plenty of soybeans in the U.S. and, indeed, around the world.
The global soybean stocks/use ratio of 30% is significantly elevated and not too far from the record high of 33%. These are clearly bearish global stocks/use levels for soybeans, and while global ending stock projections in Tuesday’s report were below the average analyst guess, it's likely not going to be enough to excite bullish animal spirits.
Wheat
The USDA updated the domestic wheat balance sheet for March, bumping imports up 10 million bushels and lowering export projections by 15 million bushels. This leaves U.S. wheat ending stocks at 819 million bushels—an 18% jump from last year—pushing the stocks-to-use ratio up to 41.17%, its highest level in three years.
Global ending stocks were also revised higher, reflecting reduced exports driven in part by a drop in Chinese import projections. However, the global balance sheet is tightening. The fact remains that the world is projected to consume more wheat than it produces in 4 out of the past 5 years. Bulls will highlight this fact as fundamentally supportive for wheat prices, yet bears will be quick to point out that current supply levels remain adequate, above the psychological level of 30%.