Teucrium Insights

Weather Risks Build

Written by Jake Hanley | Apr 20, 2026 5:33:43 PM

 Wheat

Wheat posted its biggest weekly gain in almost two months, with the most active contracts in Chicago gaining 3.3% for the week. Persistent weather concerns and tighter fertilizer supplies linked to the Iran war stoked worries over the crop’s supply outlook.

The USDA crop conditions showed winter wheat at 34% good to excellent, compared to 35% a week ago. Russia exported 4.84 million tons of wheat in March, compared to 2.02 million tons a year ago, and cut its wheat export duty to zero for April 22-29.

Friday saw wheat futures fall to close at $5.8975 a bushel as traders dumped long positions after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open for transit. Still, drought conditions were expected to linger in key growing regions, lending support to prices.

Soybeans

Rangebound trade continues to define the soybean market, with futures consolidating this week as the market digested conflicting fundamental signals.

US soybean export sales for the week ended April 9 totaled 247,900 tons, down from the previous week and marking a marketing-year low. China’s soybean imports fell to a one-year low of 4.019 million tons in March, down 33% from February but up 15% year-over-year, with the market awaiting a planned summit between American and Chinese leaders.

Brazil’s Vegetable Oils Industry Association raised its 2026 soybean crushing estimate to a record 62.2 million tons, up from 61.5 million tons in March. On Friday, July soybean futures rose 0.1% to $11.81½ a bushel, though the week saw mixed trading with beans drifting lower on good US planting weather.

Corn

Corn futures showed mixed action this week, with intermarket spreading and some chart short covering providing support. US corn export sales for the week ended April 9 totaled 1,457,000 tons, up from 1,373,000 tons the previous week.

The USDA announced 316,000 tons of corn sold to Mexico, with 138,000 tons for new crop and 112,000 tons for new/new crop. Turkey introduced a quota allowing the import of up to 3 million metric tons of corn at a 5% customs duty through July 31.

On Friday, May corn futures fell to $4.48 a bushel as traders moved out of long positions ahead of the weekend. Conab raised its total Brazilian corn crop production estimate to 139.6 million tons, up from 138.3 million tons previously.

Sugar

ICE Sugar No. 11 futures declined 2.7% for the week ended April 17, 2026, closing at 13.31 cents per pound after trading in a volatile range between 13.31 and 13.88 cents. The market rebounded briefly on Monday following 10 days of prior declines and oversold conditions.

The Monday bounce was supported by stronger crude oil prices boosting ethanol demand prospects in Brazil, but selling pressure resumed later in the week. Money managers increased their net short positions by 46,210 contracts to 147,214, representing the most bearish positioning in four weeks.

About 472,650 metric tons of white sugar are expected to be delivered to settle the expiring May futures contract, representing the largest delivery for the May contract since at least 2012. Supplies are largely from Thailand.

 This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity, futures contract, or other financial instrument. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.