Wheat
September Chicago wheat settled at $6.82 3/4 on Friday, up 10 cents on the day (+1.48%). That's the third straight higher weekly close, and the move has one driver above all others: the Black Sea.
On July 10, Ukrainian forces struck Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, and the fighting spilled into the Black Sea over the following days. Russia closed the Kerch Strait with no timeline to reopen, then hit back at Ukraine's grain ports around Odesa. StoneX's Arlan Suderman flagged as many as 147 Russian-linked ships hit inside an 11-day window, with insurance rates for anything near those ports soaring and shippers increasingly unwilling to take the risk.
USDA pegs Russia at nearly one-fifth of world wheat exports, and Reuters estimates roughly a quarter of that flows through the Sea of Azov.
Weather is stacking on top of the war. Pro Farmer shared a report that Western Australia, the country's largest wheat-exporting state, may loose almost 30% of its crop compared to last year (9.5 million tons, down from 13.3 million). Additionally, a late-June heatwave has dented the EU crop, and USDA now has the U.S. winter wheat crop at 990.4 million bushels, the smallest since 1963.
The counterweight is real: Russia is carrying a record yield (3.53 tons per hectare), harvest is only getting started, and Marex's Tim Bulfer notes world cash basis levels aren't following futures higher. That’s a sign that importers aren't chasing prices higher.
Watch the port at Novorossijsk. It isn't shut, but Suderman warns that if Ukraine starts targeting grain ships there, the market could lose its main alternative route and prices may face further upward pressure. Pro Farmer flagged resistance near $6.85 and $7.00 as the levels traders are watching into next week.
Soybeans
August soybeans settled at $12.04 1/2 Friday, up 9 cents (+0.75%). China is back at the U.S. counter.
USDA's flash system showed nearly 707,000 metric tons of new-crop soybean sales Friday morning, with 340,000 tons explicitly to China. StoneX's Mike Castle called it the largest single day of new-crop soybean flash sales since July 2023 and the biggest soybean flash day of any kind since November 2025.
Marex reported 14 cargoes traded to China for Sinograin on Thursday, with more done overnight. Cumulative 2026/27 sales now sit at 169 million bushels, the largest for this point on the calendar since 2022.
The catch is politics. President Trump used a Thursday-night address to draw attention to China’s meddling in the 2020 election. The U.S.- China relationship is fragile, and farmers would like to see China fulfill their verbal purchase commitments. Some analysts remain skeptical that Sinograin gets anywhere near the alleged 25-million-ton purchase target by year-end, with Marex’s Bulfur guessing the final number may be more like half that, with Brazilian beans still winning most private Chinese business and a 10% import tax on U.S. beans still in place.
Watch whether these flash sales turn into a sustained pace. The coming weeks are typically the strongest stretch for new-crop export sales, so if China keeps stepping up, the U.S. balance sheet could tighten meaningfully. If the political realities lead to Beijing backing away, the move may stall.
Corn
September corn settled at $4.44 3/4 Friday, up 4 cents (+0.91%), continuing it’s steady upward price climb.
Pro Farmer's Lane Akre framed it well: December corn is seeing its first durable summer rally in three years. The contract bottomed at $4.30 on June 29 and has since climbed about 40 cents, powered by record demand, weather worry, and world production concerns.
Crop conditions are the soft spot. French corn rated good-to-excellent has slid to 41%, down from 72% a year ago, and Marex expects Monday's U.S. condition ratings to come in 2% to 3% lower, which would put the crop roughly 10% below year-ago levels. The International Grains Council trimmed world corn stocks by 5 million tons.
While market participants naturally associate Black Sea risks with wheat, it’s important to keep in mind that Russia and Urkaine combine for ~ 13% of global wheat exports.
Pulling the other way, South America's harvest is coming in with good yields and Argentine corn remains the cheapest offer in the world, potentially putting a cap on how far U.S. futures can run.
Monday's Crop Progress report is the near-term tell. Pro Farmer notes a close back below roughly $4.52, or under the 20-day moving average, would suggest the rally is running out of steam, so watch for the possibility of a pullback if conditions surprise to the upside.
October No. 11 sugar settled at 14.83 cents Friday, up 0.39 cents (+2.70%), the biggest one-day percentage move among the four markets we track.
The catalyst is a demand story out of Brazil. On July 14, the country's energy council approved raising the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline from 30% to 32%, and Unica estimates the change could add roughly 1 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol demand a year.
More ethanol demand pulls cane toward the still and away from the sugar bin, which could tighten global supply. Then there's trade friction. The U.S. is set to impose 25% tariffs on Brazilian products on July 22, and Brazil sent about 420,000 metric tons of sugar and 253 million liters of ethanol to the U.S. in 2025. If the tariff sticks, that volume has to find new buyers, and rerouting it could ripple through global prices.
The supply side is leaking in several places at once. Pakistan's government deferred a request to export more than 600,000 metric tons of surplus sugar, the Philippine sugar regulator warned a pest infestation could cost 150,000 metric tons (about 8% of national output), and a labor shortage on South Africa's North Coast is delaying cane harvesting. Global white sugar has been hovering around $455 to $465 per metric ton.
Watch how Brazil splits its cane between ethanol and sugar as E32 phases in, and whether the July 22 tariff forces Brazilian sugar to find new homes. Either could keep sugar sensitive to headlines in the weeks ahead.
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