The Last 30 Days Rewrote Crypto's Rulebook

The regulatory uncertainty that has kept most institutions underweight crypto has shrunken meaningfully over the past 30 days or so. Budding clarity could open the doors to a wave of new institutional investment allocation. Years of enforcement letters and SEC speeches have given way to written guidance, actual rulemakings, and legislation moving through Congress. In our view, the durability of this shift depends on the passage of the CLARITY Act.

Here’s where things stand.

The SEC and CFTC Drew a Line

On March 17, the SEC and CFTC issued joint interpretive guidance establishing a five-category taxonomy for digital assets: digital commodities, digital securities, stablecoins, digital collectibles, and digital tools.¹ The guidance classified 16 major crypto assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction.²

The SEC narrowed its own scope in parallel. Its oversight covers digital securities, staking or wrapping of securities, and assets sold as investment contracts^.3 Mining, staking, wrapping, and airdrops don’t constitute securities transactions under the specified circumstances^.4

A week later, on March 23, the CFTC announced enforcement action against platforms offering leveraged or margined crypto products to U.S. users without proper registration.⁵ The regulatory home for spot crypto is the CFTC, and the CFTC is moving.

Stablecoins: Reserve and AML Rules Take Shape

On April 8, the FDIC issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to implement reserve, redemption, capital, and risk management standards for FDIC-supervised permitted payment stablecoin issuers^.6 That same day, FinCEN and OFAC jointly proposed AML and sanctions compliance requirements for those issuers.⁷ The FDIC, OCC, and NCUA also proposed amendments to their AML/CFT program requirements to align with the FinCEN changes.⁸

The OCC is running stricter than the GENIUS Act text. It’s seeking to extend the ban on stablecoin issuers paying yield to affiliates and third parties^.9 Revised language suggests stablecoin rewards can’t be paid out passively by digital asset service providers, which in our view could pressure centralized operators that have been offering passive yields on customer stablecoin balances^.10

Key senators reached a tentative agreement in March on stablecoin yield provisions, which is expected to let the broader CLARITY Act advance.¹¹ Banking Committee markup is targeted for late April.¹²

We believe the passage of the CLARITY Act would likely force the OCC, and all other regulators to align regulations with the new law.

Europe and Asia: The Framework Is Already Live

MiCA is maturing through practice. AllUnity launched CHFAU in March, a Swiss franc-backed stablecoin compliant with MiCAR.¹³ MiCA requires issuers to maintain reserve assets and obtain authorization before public offer and marketing.¹⁴ The revised PSD3 is expected to layer tighter compliance spending on top, alongside heightened scrutiny from G20 AML/CTF standards.¹⁵

There is similar news coming from Asia.

A Seoul Administrative Court canceled the business suspension on Upbit’s operator in early April, a win for the exchange and an open question about how clearly South Korea’s AML rules actually apply.¹⁶ Japan is running a 2028 timeline on its crypto tax reforms.¹⁷ The State Bank of Pakistan cleared regulated banks on April 14 to serve firms licensed by the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, ending a restriction in place since 2018.¹⁸ The People’s Bank of China is reportedly weighing approval for up to 12 more banks to broaden digital yuan usage, which is now interest-bearing^.19

Tying It Together

Across jurisdictions, the rules are converging on the same four things: authorization and licensing for issuers, reserve composition and custody, par-value redemption rights, and AML/CFT plus Travel Rule compliance.²⁰ There are broadly shared Stablecoin principles emerging across jurisdictions, they are: defined issuer eligibility, high-quality reserves, assured par redemption, ongoing transparency.²¹ The open gap is accounting and tax treatment of tokenized money and assets, which in our view is the next area where jurisdictional differences may show up.²²

Considerations for Allocators

The biggest practical shift is regulatory certainty around who regulates what in the U.S. spot market. Assets classified as digital commodities sit under a clearer CFTC jurisdiction, which we think could reduce the legal tail risk that has kept some institutions on the sidelines. That’s a structural change to the access picture.

Agency interpretive guidance can be rescinded by a future administration without Congressional action, which is part of why the CLARITY Act matters. The current limited progress on regulatory clarity isn’t bulletproof until the bill passes.

For allocators sizing crypto exposure, we would expect the next two quarters to bring finalized U.S. stablecoin implementation rules, potential CLARITY Act passage, and continued MiCA enforcement color in Europe. The regime is tightening around a narrower set of permitted structures. In our view, that may be positive for vehicles and issuers that fit cleanly inside the framework, and harder on structures that relied on prior gray space.

New industries always produce winners and losers. In our view, the rules are sharpening, and that clarity could help allocators separate the two and potentially draw more capital off the sidelines.

Acronym Key:

• FDIC — Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• OCC — Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• NCUA — National Credit Union Administration

• AML — Anti-Money Laundering

• CFT — Combating the Financing of Terrorism

• MiCA — Markets in Crypto-Assets (European Union)

• CHFAU — Clearinghouse Fraud and Abuse Unit

• MiCAR — Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (European Union)

• PSD3 — Payment Services Directive 3 (European Union)