Corn
Corn futures broke early and often this week, sliding through multiple technical layers and pressing into key support ahead of the weekend. Prices had hovered at higher levels in recent sessions, which encouraged moderate to heavy farmer selling and profit-taking. The initial move lower began late last week before stabilizing briefly, but the new week brought limited fresh inputs, allowing futures to drift beneath the 50% Fibonacci retracement as well as the 200-day and 20-day moving averages.
December ’25 futures now sit directly on top of the 50-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement. These levels need to hold to prevent a deeper decline toward the 100-day moving average and the 23.6% retracement. At current price levels down to $4.00, traders can argue for value given steady demand throughout the season and the potential for reduced 2026 acreage following 2025’s record production and ample supplies.
Market sentiment remains cautious. Traders await clearer direction from South America, where planting is progressing but still hindered by adverse weather in parts of Brazil. Outside of South America, the market continues to monitor global trade negotiations for signs of sustained demand.
Key Levels: Support at $4.25 with follow-through risk toward $4.15–$4.00. Resistance at $4.35 scaling to $4.50. A relatively tight range-bound trade appears likely into year-end and early 2026.
Soybeans
Soybean futures digested a wave of updated export sale announcements confirming that China has stepped in to purchase U.S. beans, seemingly in good faith. While these purchases supported nearby sentiment, South American offers remain meaningfully cheaper, suggesting China has little incentive to buy aggressively from the U.S. beyond the December–January window. By the first half of 2026, demand will transition toward newly harvested South American supplies.
The U.S. balance sheet tightened following USDA’s recent yield cut and sub-300 million bushel carryout, yet domestic supplies remain adequate for nearby needs. Since mid-October, when the uptrend began, lead-month January ’26 futures surged $1.51 in just one month. The China deal is a constructive development, but after a year with essentially no business and a record crop, prices began to cool once RSI readings pushed above 80. Farmer selling and the unwinding of short-term bullish positions contributed to more than 55 cents of downside with relative ease.
S&P’s updated projections estimate a 4% increase in U.S. soybean acreage next year to 84.5 million acres. Meanwhile, traders maintain close watch on South America, where another strong crop is expected and weather remains a focal point.
Key Levels: Nearby support at $11.00 with stronger demand appearing between $10.75–$10.50, including an old gap at $10.70¼–$10.63. Resistance remains firm at $11.35–$11.50.
Wheat
Wheat futures attempted to track row crops higher in recent weeks following the U.S.–China agreement, but upside momentum proved unsustainable against a heavy fundamental backdrop. With the government reopened, fresh data hit the market and reinforced an outlook of ample stocks both domestically and globally. Better-than-expected production updates from Russia, Australia, and other key exporters pressured cash markets, and reports now suggest wheat is the world’s cheapest feed grain.
Exports from the Black Sea continue to dominate global flows, and traders expect the region to secure a large portion of the Saudi tender this week. Technically, futures slipped through support at the 23.6% retracement along with the 20-day and 100-day moving averages. Prices now sit near levels that need to hold, with the 50-day average serving as the next key defense. An old gap at $5.16¾–$5.15½ leaves little doubt of a pending fill, and sufficient momentum could drive a test of $5.00 or even lower.
Despite the soft near-term outlook, long-term value emerges as depressed prices encourage demand growth and U.S. acreage is expected to decline. Industry chatter points to reductions in winter wheat plantings, and S&P Insights projects a 1.3-million-acre cut next season.
Key Levels: Support begins at current lows and extends toward $5.00. Resistance stands near $5.50.
Sugar
Sugar futures lacked clear direction this week, chopping back and forth following an early slide before stabilizing and briefly testing the $0.1500 area in the March ’26 contract. Once again, prices retreated from that resistance band. The fundamental backdrop remains heavy, with few supportive catalysts and steady pressure on any sign of strength. Contract lows were posted earlier this month, and speculation persists that additional weakness could test levels below $0.1400.
A favorable growing season has boosted production and replenished global stocks, contributing to an improved supply profile heading into the new season. The ISO increased its surplus estimate this week to 1.625 MMT, well above last year’s figure. Some support emerged on reports from India indicating a potential ethanol price increase, which could encourage mills to divert cane toward ethanol. Questions remain, however, about whether abundant global supplies will prompt increased exports. India has already set its export allowance 0.5 MMT below prior estimates.
Key Levels: Support between $0.1450–$0.1400. Resistance at $0.1500–$0.1550 while the market awaits fresh catalysts.