Wheat
December Chicago wheat settled Friday at $7.84, up 23 1/4 cents on the day and 84 3/4 cents for the week. That is both a contract high and a three-year high. December Kansas City wheat closed at $8.44 1/4, up 71 3/4 cents on the week, and December spring wheat added 12 cents to $7.69 1/4.
Wire reports that Putin determined the peace talks were at a dead end and he intended to escalate sent December Chicago wheat limit-up 45 cents, and the exchange widened limits to 70 cents for Thursday. SovEcon cut its estimate of Russian August wheat exports another 300,000 metric tons to 1.9 million tons, against 4.5 million a year ago and a 5.0 million average, and puts more than 95% of Russia’s combined Black Sea and Sea of Azov export capacity out of action; SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov called it unmatched in the history of the modern grain market, worse than the 2010 Russian export ban or the first half of 2022.
Russia’s Rostov region declared a state of emergency Friday over port closures and grain piling up on farms, and Oxford Economics has flagged as much as 86 million tons of export capacity at risk across the two countries.
Watch whether importers keep paying up for Australian and Argentine origin, because that is what would turn a logistics disruption into a durable price story. With RSI near 79 and Tuesday’s positioning snapshot already stale, a sharp two-way trade is possible on any credible sign a grain corridor reopens.
Corn
December corn settled Friday at $5.36 1/2, up 3 cents on the day and 28 cents for the week, a contract high and a three-year high. The rally has been counter-seasonal and it has been steady, with buyers stepping into every intraday setback.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, released after the prior Friday’s close, pegged the national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre and production at 15.344 billion bushels, against USDA’s August figures of 180.7 bushels and 16.013 billion. The Pro Farmer estimates erase roughly 670 million bushels of supply. On Monday the USDA published their Crop Progress report cutting corn conditions 3 points to 57% good/excellent, well past the 1 point the trade expected and 14 points behind last year.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour has a long track record. StoneX’s Mike Castle notes the corn estimates have landed below USDA’s August corn yield in 9 of the last 10 years, by an average of 4.44 bushels. The direction looks right, but the actual magnitude is probably overstated. That puts the focus squarely on the September WASDE.
Demand may become a soft spot. Corn export sales hit a marketing-year low last week at 31,200 metric tons, down 87% from the prior week, though new crop sales ran a solid 1 million tons. Watch the refinery exemption decision alongside the WASDE: reports have small refinery exemptions possibly doubling to 1.8 billion gallons, which could pressure corn and soybean oil demand, and the administration is weighing roughly 500 million gallons of added 2027 quota to offset it.
Soybeans
November soybeans settled Friday at $12.88, up 20 cents on the day and 48 1/2 cents for the week, a contract high and the best level in about two and a half years. December meal closed at $348.90, up $23.10 on the week and a more-than-two-year high.
Crop Tour called a record bean crop at 53.3 bushels per acre and 4.572 billion bushels, above USDA’s 52.7 and 4.519 billion, and the market shook it off inside two sessions, and chose to focus on demand instead.
Private exporters reported 182,000 metric tons of beans sold to China on Friday plus 226,000 tons to unknown destinations, and China has been adding purchases ahead of Xi Jinping’s expected September 24 visit to the US. USDA has 2026-27 exports at 1.66 billion bushels, and Pro Farmer notes that if China takes the expected 25 million tons, that leaves 741 million bushels for every other buyer, which would be the lowest non-China total since 2013-14.
Crush margins are strong and meal is being pulled along by the feed grains, with Marex’s grain desk flagging beans and meal approaching an RSI of 80. Watch whether Chinese buying holds through the Xi meeting, and watch the refinery exemption ruling; the American Soybean Association says the larger exemption figures could cut biomass-based diesel demand by roughly 500 million gallons and cost farmers about $1 billion.
Sugar
October ICE Sugar No. 11 settled Friday at 17.56 cents, down 63 points on the day and essentially flat against the prior Friday’s 17.61. Thursday’s 18.19 close was the high-water mark before Friday’s 3.5% break, so the week was a round trip.
Friday’s reversal tracked the dollar. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, and StoneX’s Mike Castle noted the dollar erased the prior week’s losses while CME FedWatch swung to roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike in September. Sugar is the most FX-sensitive of these four markets, so that shift alone can account for most of the day.
Managed money ran its Sugar No. 11 net long to 198,017 contracts as of Tuesday, up 59,404 on the week and the largest net long in at least a year, which left the market crowded on one side going into a dollar rally.
The fundamentals stay split. India cut its production estimate to about 30.6 million metric tons, among the lowest in six or seven years, and allowed duty-free imports on August 20, which knocked ex-mill prices from a peak near 67 rupees per kilogram to 54 or 55; Brazil is the only realistic source and cargoes take 40 to 45 days.
Watch the dollar and any confirmation of actual Indian import volume; either could move this market further.
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