Grains & Sugar Weekly
Wheat
Wheat had a week that'll be talked about for a while. CHI wheat May '26 futures surged to multi-month intra-day highs early in the week, riding a wave of geopolitical risk tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and short-covering that turned aggressive once the market broke above key resistance. The May contract hit $6.13¼ on Friday, up 2.5% capping the volatile week.
U.S. export sales came in at 495,800 metric tons, blowing past analyst forecasts of 200,000 to 450,000 tons. Export inspections for the week ending March 5 also strengthened to 496,000 tons, up sharply from 355,000 tons the prior week.
Funds that had been heavily short wheat spent much of the week scrambling to cover. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money net short positions at 22,345 contracts, down over 3,400 on the week, and short-only positions fell to their lowest level in about 16 months. Options volatility in nearby wheat exceeded 40% at the highs, which tells us there were still a lot of funds short calls trying to get out.
The crop itself is coming out of dormancy in mixed shape. Dry weather in the Plains is a growing concern, with 55% of the winter wheat acreage now in drought conditions, up from 50% a week ago and 24% a year ago. Kansas came in at 56% good to excellent, Oklahoma at 24%, Texas at 16%. The drought spread is the number to watch going forward.
The March WASDE offered nothing new on wheat. Domestic all-wheat stocks held at 931 million bushels, with zero changes across all classes. World ending stocks unchanged at 277.5 million tons.
Key Levels: Resistance for the CHI Wheat May '26 contract is near $6.17 with a stronger barrier near $6.40. Watch for near-term support around $6.00 with further support potential ~ $5.77.
Corn
Corn had a violent week. May '26 futures hit multi-year intra-day highs early on, powered by war-premium buying and funds aggressively covering short positions. The Commitment of Traders showed managed money flipping to net long 53,000 contracts, a full reversal from net short 14,000 the prior week. In four sessions, open interest in corn futures rose by 123,000 contracts.
Then, farmer selling hit hard, and the market gave a chunk of it back.
Pro Farmer's Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn estimate by 2 million tons to 133 MMT, citing delayed safrinha planting. Brazil's second-crop corn was 82% planted as of late last week, and the ideal window is essentially closed, leaving 1 to 2 million hectares potentially unplanted or switched to grain sorghum. That matters for second-half supply.
The March WASDE on domestic corn was a non-event. U.S. ending stocks held at 2.127 billion bushels, exactly matching February. The USDA changed nothing on supply or demand. World ending stocks came in at 292.8 million tons, actually higher than the 289.2 million ton pre-report guess. Brazil at 132 MMT, Argentina at 52 MMT, both roughly in line with expectations.
The other big story is fertilizer. Urea futures remain near conflict highs following the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The National Corn Growers Association is pushing hard for year-round E15 access, with NCGA president Jed Bower arguing the energy and farm economics line up. The RFS announcement is expected after the EPA completes stakeholder meetings running through March 18.
Friday closed at $4.67 per bushel, recovering from mid-week weakness. The market digested a lot of farmer selling and the broader commodity selloff tied to crude oil volatility.
Key Levels: Resistance for the Corn May '26 contract may show up around $4.70, with additional selling pressure likely at $4.80. Look for near-term support ~ $4.64 with additional support around $4.57, down to $4.50.
Soybeans
Soybeans pushed to multi-month highs this week, with the May '26 contract trading above $12.23¾ on Friday before pulling back slightly. Soybean oil led the complex, heading for its longest streak of weekly gains in almost a year as crude oil held near $100 per barrel and biodiesel economics stayed compelling. Net bullish soy oil bets hit a 3-year high, with long-only positions reaching a record.
The demand side of the story stayed strong on multiple fronts. Money managers pushed net long soybean bets to 222,107 contracts, a 16-week high. China continued making noise as a buyer. Then Brazil's export situation complicated things.
Cargill suspended soybean exports from Brazil to China after Brazil's Agriculture Ministry adopted stricter sanitary evaluations on shipments, per the Chinese government's request. At least 20 vessels bound for China were held up. Cargill's Latin America head Paulo Sousa said the new inspection system is unusual for the grains trade. Without sanitary certificates, the vessels don't move. That's a meaningful short-term disruption at a time when the Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for March 31 through April 2 in Beijing.
The March WASDE was close to neutral on soybeans. U.S. ending stocks held at 350 million bushels. World soybean production came in at 427.2 million tons, Brazil at 180 MMT, Argentina at 48 MMT. Both in line with expectations. The report wasn't the story this week.
What's next: the Bessent-Greer meetings with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled for March 15-16. Agricultural trade, including U.S. soybean purchases, is reportedly on the table.
Key Levels: Resistance, near-term sits just above current prices at $12.34, with additional pressure likely around $12.50. Look for potential support ~ $12.12, with firmer support at $11.77, and then $11.43.
Sugar
Sugar is trying to find a floor. ICE No. 11 May '26 futures climbed to a one-month high early in the week, with a brief rally to the mid-14s before giving back some gains into Friday's close. May settled mixed, with raw sugar down fractionally and London ICE white sugar up modestly.
The fundamental backdrop is still heavy. The International Sugar Organization projects a 1.22 MMT surplus for 2025-26, following a 3.46 MMT deficit the prior year. Czarnikow sees a 3.4 MMT surplus for 2026-27.
India's output through February 28 is up 12% year over year at 24.75 MMT, and India just got approval to export an additional 500,000 MT on top of the 1.5 MMT cleared in November.
The supply pressure is real.
The supportive offset is Brazil. Unica reported that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South in the second half of January fell 36% year over year to only 5,000 MT. And with crude oil holding near multi-year highs, Brazilian mills face increasing incentive to divert cane crushing toward ethanol rather than sugar. The energy economics are pushing that direction. A stronger U.S. dollar capped upside on Friday, but the Brazil energy argument could continue to provide a floor.
The RSI on the weekly chart has turned higher from oversold territory, which may signal an attempt at stabilization. Whether that holds depends heavily on Brazilian ethanol demand gaining traction as the new crop cycle approaches.
Key Levels: Resistance for the ICE Sugar No. 11 May '26 contract is appears to be around $14.50 near-term, with additional selling pressure likely around $14.72. Watch for support around $14.12, and if that doesn’t hold back at $13.70ish.
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