Grains & Sugar Weekly 08/29/2025

Corn

Corn futures traded without much conviction this week, struggling to build on last week’s strength. Prices briefly rallied through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and approached the 50-day moving average before profit-taking, favorable crop conditions, and supportive weather forecasts sent futures back to test the 20-day average. By week’s end, markets settled into a neutral pattern, with the RSI holding just above 50. Still, month-end positioning and short covering provided a strong rally into the holiday weekend.

Fundamentals took on a more cautious tone as the ProFarmer tour delivered yield and production estimates below USDA projections. The tour pegged yield at 182.7 bpa versus USDA’s 188.8, with production at 16.2 billion bushels compared to 16.7. While still pointing to a large crop, the gap is notable, particularly with minor reports of disease issues surfacing in some regions.

Demand remains a bright spot, though weekly sales announcements slowed. Thursday’s export figure of 2.09 million metric tons underscored continued strength, even in a week with limited fresh headlines. Traders are watching U.S. fieldwork results, the pace of export demand, developments in the Black Sea, and the direction of trade negotiations.

Key Levels: Support at $4.05–$3.90. Resistance layered at $4.25–$4.40.

Soybeans

Soybean futures mirrored corn’s lack of momentum for the majority of the week, with rallies unable to push through the $10.75 ¾ area — the 2025 high. A sizable crop is expected to weigh on advances toward $11.00. ProFarmer’s tour pegged yield at 53.0 bpa versus USDA’s 53.6, with production at 4.2 billion bushels against USDA’s 4.3. While the differences appear minor, worsening drought during key pod-filling stages could trim final results.

Markets also tracked U.S.–China trade discussions, where agricultural products are expected to be central to negotiations. In the near term, technical convergence of the major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200) between $10.24 and $10.28 ¾, with the 50% retracement just below $10.20, has provided a strong base. RSI readings near 56 indicate balanced conditions.

Looking ahead, September marks the beginning of harvest pressure, with additional supply expected to gradually weigh on the market. Attention will also shift toward South America as planting begins in Q4. For now, soybean prices remain well-supported but capped without fresh catalysts.

Key Levels: Support at $10.25–$10.00. Resistance at $10.75–$11.00.

Wheat

Wheat futures continue to hold the $5.00 level but lack a clear bullish driver. Prices have drifted lower since late July as harvest advanced across the Northern Hemisphere and hopes for progress in Black Sea ceasefire talks gained traction. Optimism around peace negotiations remains fragile, with trade reluctant to fully price in a favorable outcome.

Globally, improved production outlooks and ample supply continue to weigh on sentiment. With more grain entering the market and potential for fewer disruptions from the Black Sea, traders remain cautious. Still, downside momentum appears limited, as current levels represent long-term value areas that could encourage renewed buying interest.

Key Levels: Support anchored at $5.00, with deeper interest near $4.75. Resistance at the 50-day moving average around $5.29, with additional supply expected between $5.35–$5.50.

Sugar

Sugar futures remain range-bound, flagging for a second consecutive week as traders await fresh catalysts. RSI sits near 50, reinforcing neutral momentum, while prices consolidated around the converging 20- and 50-day moving averages at $0.16395–$0.16405.

Fundamentally, headlines included Pakistan’s tender for 100,000 MT of white sugar and CONAB’s reduction of Brazil’s production estimate. Neither development significantly shifted sentiment, as Pakistan’s demand was widely anticipated and Brazilian reports remain mixed, with field conditions showing better results than some feared.

Until a stronger catalyst emerges, the market continues to oscillate within familiar ranges, with traders hesitant to commit in either direction.

Key Levels: Support at $0.1600. Resistance capped near $0.1700.