Grains & Sugar Weekly Recap 06/06/2025

Corn futures tested previous lows this week as early buying strength faded. Optimism about the U.S. crop pressured prices, driven by favorable weather that aided planting and crop development. Good-to-excellent ratings for the U.S. crop remain above the five-year average. Additional headwinds came from Brazil’s advancing Safrinha harvest and negative news on trade relations.

Despite the pressure, several factors provide underlying support. Global stocks remain tight, and demand has been strong. Furthermore, record U.S. production projections leave little room for error should adversity strike. Technically, futures broke below key support levels to set a new recent low. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, which attracted some buyers late in the week. Moving forward, traders will monitor developments in the Black Sea, trade tariffs, and U.S. weather.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $4.50–$4.65 and support at $4.30–$4.15, with bears eyeing a move toward $4.00

Soybean futures fell early in the week on negative headlines regarding U.S.-China trade relations. However, prices reversed higher after holding the key 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A late-week report of a positive call between U.S. and Chinese leaders helped futures rally into the weekend.

The market’s focus remains on U.S. growing conditions and demand. The crop is off to a strong start, with initial good-to-excellent ratings of 67% sitting above the five-year average. Meanwhile, demand continues to lag, a fact proven again by poor export sales this week. Technically, futures closed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level and a convergence of all major moving averages, a strong performance. The market remains highly sensitive to trade-related news.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.60–$10.75 and support at $10.35–$10.25, with significant support at $10.00.

Wheat futures defended key technical support levels this week, bouncing firmly through initial resistance. Prices remain in a relatively tight range as the market awaits fresh fundamental inputs. Tensions are again increasing in the Black Sea after Ukrainian strikes on Russia, raising concerns about grain shipments from the region. This could shift demand to more reliable sources.

Weather issues in China have also cut production estimates, which may increase their import demand. On the other side, reports of slowing Chinese demand for Australian wheat have increased Australia’s available supplies. From a technical standpoint, futures closed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, putting the market in a strong position.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.50–$5.75 and support at $5.35, with major support at $5.25–$5.00.

Sugar prices declined sharply, falling to within a few ticks of the contract low. The weak price action suggests that any supply concerns from last season have now faded. Favorable crop progress and confidence in new season production across the globe continue to limit the upside. Reports from Brazil’s high-producing center-south region show a better-than-expected harvest for the world's leading exporter.

Without fresh bullish news, the market may see further weakness in the coming weeks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed at 32.8, nearing oversold territory, but could still move lower.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $0.1700–$0.1725 and support at $0.1625–$0.1575.