Grains & Sugar Weekly 08/15/2025

Corn

Corn futures fell sharply early in the week as the USDA’s August crop report offered little bullish news. Yield estimates jumped 7.8 bpa to 188.8 bpa, accompanied by a 1.9 million-acre increase in harvest area. The combined impact pushed ending stocks to 2.117 billion bushels, keeping a firm lid on prices unless proven otherwise. While the market had largely anticipated this outcome, given the favorable U.S. growing season, heavy positioning to one side amplified selling once the December ’25 contract broke below the key $4.00 psychological level.

Prices tested previously noted support zones before stabilizing on strong demand signals, including four fresh daily sales announcements and export figures near the top of expectations. Long-term buyers are expected to re-enter on further weakness, with a test of $3.75–$3.50 likely to spark larger interest. In the near term, end users and scale-in buyers may engage from $3.95–$3.80 while awaiting trade updates with key U.S. partners.

Key Levels: Support at $3.95 to $3.80, with deeper interest at $3.75 to $3.50. Resistance at $4.10 to $4.25, where the 20-day moving average aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Soybeans

Soybean futures rallied on the USDA report as acreage was cut by 2.4 million acres and beginning stocks fell by 20 million bushels, tightening the supply outlook. Even with yields raised 1.1 bpa to 53.6 bpa, exports dropped by 40 million bushels, pulling ending stocks down to 290 million.

Despite the bullish shift in domestic balance sheets, U.S. export demand has been underwhelming, with China and other major buyers turning to South America for supplies. Speculation of renewed U.S.–China engagement, including a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this year, has provided some optimism. August marks a key development month for the U.S. crop, with prevailing neutral conditions keeping concerns muted for now. However, the approaching harvest and upcoming South American planting season will soon weigh on sentiment.

Key Levels: Resistance remains heavy at $10.50 (Nov ’25). A break higher would target $10.75 to $11.00 but would likely require clarity on U.S.–China trade relations. Support at $10.25 to $10.10 aligns with major moving averages, with additional downside risk toward $10.00 and recent lows. The 50% retracement of the recent rally sits at $10.15 ¼.

Wheat

Wheat futures extended their stepwise decline as the USDA report showed slightly tighter U.S. and world stocks but still ample supply. The lack of a fresh fundamental driver has kept prices under pressure, with September ’25 futures testing the $5.00 support area that has provided stability on continuous charts.

Market attention remains on Ukraine, where fresh attacks have been reported. Hopes for favorable outcomes from planned in-person talks between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska have tempered some geopolitical risk. Strong U.S. export sales this week lent modest support, though ongoing harvest progress continues to add weight.

Key Levels: Support at $5.00 down to $4.75. Initial resistance at the 20-day moving average near $5.22, with heavier selling pressure expected from $5.35 to $5.50.

Sugar

Sugar futures carried last week’s late strength into early trade, pushing October ’25 prices sharply higher to test key resistance near $0.1700 before retreating on profit-taking. The rally was fueled by reports of lower-than-expected yields in Brazil and news that Pakistan had issued a tender for 200,000 metric tons of white sugar, prompting short covering.

Selling returned after indications that India, buoyed by a strong production season, will increase exports, adding supply to global markets. At levels not seen for months, longs booked profits against resistance, leaving prices range-bound while awaiting the next catalyst.

Key Levels: Nearby resistance at $0.1700, with support at $0.1600. Futures remain between the 20- and 50-day moving averages and near the 50 RSI mark, signaling a neutral short-term outlook.