Grains & Sugar Weekly 08/08/2025

Corn
Corn futures extended losses early in the week, marking multiple new contract lows before finding a weekly bottom at $3.96 ¾ (Dec ’25). Selling pressure accelerated as prices broke through the key $4.00 psychological threshold, falling more than 30 cents in recent weeks. Late-week profit-taking helped spark a corrective bounce, aided by strong export sales data and three fresh daily sales announcements.

Production prospects remain a headwind. Favorable U.S. growing conditions and record yield projections continue to weigh on sentiment, with StoneX pegging yields at 188 bpa versus the USDA’s 181. Even with an active demand profile, the market appears unlikely to sustain upside momentum without a new bullish catalyst. Demand risk lingers amid ongoing trade negotiations, rising South American availability, and chatter of potential U.S.–Russia discussions that could lead to a ceasefire in the Black Sea region.

While low-price stability has historically attracted long-term buying interest, further weakness remains possible if export pace falters.

Key Levels: Support strengthens below $4.00, with near-term focus at $3.95 to $3.80. Bears are targeting $3.75. Resistance builds at $4.10 and extends to $4.25, where the 20- and 50-day moving averages converge with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Soybeans
Soybean futures slipped early in the week before stabilizing just under $10.00 (Nov ’25). Market confidence remains subdued, with traders focused on U.S.–China trade developments. Reports suggest ongoing talks and the potential for a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this year, though uncertainty persists.

U.S. demand has lagged all season, with China favoring Brazilian beans and Argentine meal exports. The U.S. crop outlook remains favorable, supported by neutral-to-positive weather and strong condition ratings. StoneX raised its yield estimate to 53.6 bpa, above the USDA’s 52.5. August marks a key development stage, and while warmer temperatures are forecast, rain in the outlook is easing concerns. Without significant sales or a trade deal, rising stocks and looming South American harvest pressure could weigh on prices.

Key Levels: Nearby support rests at $9.75 to $9.50, near contract lows. Resistance stands at $10.15 to $10.30, capped by converging moving averages. Heavier selling pressure is likely near $10.50.

Wheat
Wheat futures set new contract lows early in the week before stabilizing on short covering and end-user buying. Seasonal harvest pressure remains a key theme, with U.S. and global production flows keeping supplies ample. Strong export sales this week, well above estimates, provided modest support.

Black Sea tensions remain elevated, though a potential Trump–Putin meeting has drawn market attention. A ceasefire, if achieved, could ease export constraints from the region.

Key Levels: Support sits at $5.00 for Sept ’25 futures, with deeper buying interest expected on tests down to $4.85. Resistance is at the 20-day moving average near $5.30, with heavier resistance between $5.40 and $5.55.

Sugar
Sugar futures dipped early in the week but held above $0.1600 (Oct ’25), prompting some short-covering and bottom-picking interest. Prices rebounded to test the 20-day moving average.

Mixed news from Brazil added uncertainty. Early-week reports pointed to strong yields, while late-week private estimates suggested production could fall well short of government projections. With prices near contract lows, traders remain cautious. Globally, the supply outlook is more favorable than last year, which may cap rallies until a bullish catalyst emerges.

Key Levels: Immediate resistance sits at the 50-day moving average and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $0.1650–$0.1665, with heavier resistance at $0.1700. Support is at $0.1600, with bears targeting $0.1550 to $0.1544.