Grains & Sugar Weekly Recap 06/13/2025

Corn

Corn futures bounced off a six-month low this week but largely moved sideways as the market assessed competing fundamentals. Bearish sentiment was driven by favorable weather conditions across the Corn Belt, expected to support crop growth. The USDA rated 71% of the U.S. corn crop in "good" to "excellent" condition as of June 8, a two-point improvement from the prior week. Conab, Brazil's agricultural agency, increased its total corn forecast to 128.25 million metric tons, reflecting better-than-expected safrinha production.

On the supportive side, rising crude oil prices following Israeli airstrikes on Iran and a weakening U.S. dollar helped prop up the market. The USDA's latest WASDE report was seen as friendly, cutting both old-crop and new-crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels due to higher export projections. However, weekly U.S. corn export sales fell short of expectations, according to USDA data.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on evolving weather patterns and upcoming USDA reports.

Key Levels: Resistance at $4.47–$4.57; Support at $4.37–$4.27. Upside potential could emerge if July futures reach $4.75.

Soybeans

Soybean futures declined early in the week following a neutral USDA report but rallied sharply Friday after the EPA proposed robust biofuel blending mandates. The EPA suggested 24.02 billion gallons for 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons for 2027, which exceeded market expectations and boosted soyoil futures, given its use as a biodiesel feedstock. Analysts expect the proposal to significantly elevate domestic soybean crush demand.

The USDA left both old- and new-crop soybean balance sheets unchanged from May. Meanwhile, net export sales dropped to a marketing-year low of 61,400 metric tons. U.S. crop conditions improved slightly, with 68% rated "good" to "excellent" as of June 8. Additionally, China imported a record 13.92 MMT of soybeans in May, driven by robust demand from crushers.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $10.70- $10.72; and support at $10.41–$10.35.

Wheat

Wheat futures reversed early-week losses on Friday, lifting off a four-week low amid bargain hunting and broader market strength. The USDA raised new-crop U.S. wheat export projections, trimming ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 898 million. Support also came from surging oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar following geopolitical escalations.

Spring wheat crop ratings improved to 53% “good” to “excellent,” a three-point increase from the prior week. Meanwhile, Russia is expected to harvest at least 135 MMT of grain in 2025, while Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat production forecast to 130.7 MMT.

Key Levels: We see resistance at $5.45 – $5.55, and support from $5.25 - $5.15.

Sugar

Despite intermittent gains, sugar prices remain under downward pressure due to tepid demand and surplus expectations for the 2025–26 season. Over the past month, prices have declined by over 10%, and are nearly 16% lower than a year ago.

Brazil’s sugar production is projected to hit 42 million metric tons in 2025–26, the second-highest on record, despite a 1% crop decline caused by hot, dry weather. Weaker ethanol demand and slowing consumption growth in emerging markets have fueled expectations of a global surplus. Developed markets also show declining long-term demand due to dietary shifts.

Technically, the market remains in a downtrend. Prices have dropped from a 2023 peak of approximately $30 per 50-kg bag in Brazil’s top producing regions.

Key Levels: Resistance at $0.1700–$0.1725; Support at $0.1625–$0.1575.