Grains & Sugar Weekly 08/22/2025

Corn

Corn futures performed strongly this week as the ongoing crop tour confirmed record-setting yield and production estimates. With groups converging in Minnesota, reports have underscored what appears to be one of the best U.S. growing seasons in decades. While supply potential remains exceptionally high, demand has continued to absorb global interest. Six new daily sales were announced this week, and Thursday’s export figure of 2.86 million was well above expectations.

Although some analysts anticipated a slowdown in demand given increased availability from South America and the Black Sea, U.S. sales momentum has yet to wane. Markets remain attentive to developments in Black Sea conflict negotiations and ongoing trade talks that could reshape flows into late 2025 and early 2026. On the technical side, futures have rebounded from sub-$4.00 levels seen as long-term value areas. Short covering, end-user pricing, and renewed bullish positioning pushed prices back above the 20-day average and through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, stopping just short of the 50-day average. RSI readings have returned to neutral near 50.

Key Levels: Support at $4.00 with additional interest at $3.85–$3.70. Near-term resistance was met at $4.10–$4.15. Heavier selling expected at $4.20–$4.35, where a chart gap exists between $4.30 ¼–$4.32 ¾.

Soybeans

Soybean futures traded in a tight, flagging range before rallying Thursday off major moving averages clustered around $10.25. The move was fueled by speculation that President Trump may exempt a number of small refineries while increasing biofuel production mandates. Since December ’24, November ’25 contracts have remained range-bound, with limited follow-through on both rallies and breaks.

The recent bounce follows August’s correction below $10.00, with strength tied to lower USDA acreage, firm demand, and supportive policy chatter. However, crop tour results suggest record yields remain likely, adding a layer of caution for further upside. Traders are closely monitoring U.S.–China trade negotiations, as Chinese purchases from Brazil continue to displace U.S. supply. A sustained rally above $11.00 would likely require evidence of Chinese buying or progress on an agreement.

Key Levels: Resistance overhead at $10.75–$11.00. Support anchored between $10.25–$10.00, leaving futures contained in a well-defined range.

Wheat

Wheat futures remain under pressure but have found stability near the $5.00 mark. Market sentiment has focused on diplomatic meetings between Presidents Trump and Putin, with hopes for progress on a Black Sea ceasefire. Improved export flows from the region could weigh further on U.S. demand.

Harvest pressure also persists. U.S. winter wheat harvest is largely complete, and spring harvest is advancing. Global balance sheets are being bolstered by Russia, where IKAR lifted its harvest forecast by 1 MMT to 85.5 MMT, with exports revised up to 42.5 MMT. France also raised its crop outlook to 33.1 MMT, highlighting ample supply. While the market remains range-bound, downside levels sit near contract lows, with bears watching for a test of $4.75.

Sugar

Sugar futures trading was a bit choppy, but found support around the converging 20- and 50-day averages near $0.1640. With limited fresh catalysts, prices remain range-bound. Previous chatter of poor Brazilian yields was quickly refuted by stronger results, while India’s return to the export market and improved weather in Brazil point to ample forward supply.

The October ’25 contract closed with RSI sitting squarely at 50, reinforcing a neutral short-term outlook. While dips toward $0.1600 have attracted support, rallies continue to stall near $0.1700 as traders await a new directional driver.

Key Levels: Support at $0.1600, resistance at $0.1700. Futures remain capped by supply expectations, with little incentive to break the current range.